Will the GOP continue to be "Trump's" party?
The second impeachment trial of President Trump will occur in the Senate this week. He will almost certainly not be convicted and the discussion will turn to his future role in the Republican party. For the sake of the Republican party, and the country, it would be best if Trump and his most ardent supporters do not play a prominent role in the party going forward...here’s my case.
#1-Trump is not really a conservative; he’s simply a populist that wants power. Trump’s political stances prior to his increasing interest in running for office in the 2000s were decidedly on the liberal side of things. He was “very pro-choice”, for universal healthcare, and had donated to Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaign. These are not exactly conservative, or Republican, stances. Perhaps he evolved and while he was more liberal leaning in the past he is now more conservative leaning. Certainly his stances on things such as abortion align more with typical conservative positions but on a host of other issue Trump redefined what conservatism meant. Here are just a few examples. For most of the post-WWII era conservatives have been strong free-trade advocates with most of the opposition to free-trade coming from strong Democratic constituencies such as labor unions. However, Trump’s views on trade are more protectionist and align very closely with those of Bernie Sanders. Trump was also not bothered by spending a lot of money, whereas conservatives have typically argued for less government spending, even if once in office they have not followed their own advice. By some measures, Trump oversaw the third largest deficit increase in American history. As Senate Republicans negotiated for a smaller direct payment in the second COVID relief bill, Trump (with support from Senator Hawley) came in late in the process to advocate for the larger payments. Trump was also not shy in using the government’s eminent domain power to take private land for his border wall. In the past conservatives would have viewed this as an abuse of government power. Trump, and again Senator Hawley, wanted to use government power to regulate social media and speech on the private companies’ platforms. It is not that any of these policies are necessarily bad or have never been supported by parts of the conservative movement in the past. But most of Trump’s actions add up to a bigger federal government with more power and more spending...things that conservatives have not viewed favorably over the last 50 years.
#2-A Republican party with Trump and his most ardent supporters in charge is not a party that will win elections. Trump is the first president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to lose his bid for reelection and see his party not win either chambers of Congress. He is one of only six presidents to have accomplished this. Trump won in 2016 but never won the popular vote and perhaps only won because he was running against the only other candidate to approach his own unfavorability levels. If you want to see the future of how successful a “Trump” Republican party would be you only need to look to Arizona. Arizona was the home of conservative icon Barry Goldwater, the Republican presidential nominee in 2008 (John McCain), and the third most conservative senator (Senator Flake) in the 2017-2019 Senate. Now, Arizona has two Democratic Senators and voted for Joe Biden in 2020. In 4 short years it went from a “Republican” state to a “Democratic” one. The same is true for Georgia as well. Much of Arizona’s decline can be attributed to “Trump-like” actions by the Arizona Republican Party, including a tweet stating Republicans should be willing to give their life to “Stop the Steal”. Trump’s politics have also been bad for Republicans at the state level. When Trump took office Republicans had twice the number of governors as Democrats whereas now they have only four more than Democrats. Republicans controlled 24 state legislatures in 2017 and 21 in 2020. Politics is unpredictable and a lot can happen. Neither party stays in control for very long but if Republicans want to win back the Presidency and Congress sooner than later the Trump model does not appear to be the most effective method.
#3-A Republican party with Trump and his most ardent supporters in charge is not a party that will stand for truth. Yes, yes…all politicians lie. But there are lies and then there are LIES. Freshman Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has received a lot of attention lately for her belief in conspiracy theories. In case you have not seen them, here are a few of the more outrageous ones. She spoke approvingly of QAnon and Pizzagate, thought the Parkland school shooting was a false flag, had some 9/11 truther beliefs, blamed the recent forest fires in California on a “space laser” and believed Hillary Clinton sliced off a child’s face and wore it as a mask. She has supposedly denounced these beliefs but that’s probably not good enough. Trump has offered his support for her and Republicans refused to strip her of her committee assignments. Representative Taylor Greene has the recent headlines but she is by no means alone in her troubled relationship with the truth. 147 House Republicans voted to overturn the election results and, as just mentioned, the majority voted to let Taylor Greene keep her committee assignments, effectively refusing to police this type of thinking within their own ranks. There are also plenty of other Republican members of Congress and candidates who have engaged with the QAnon conspiracy and others. Do Republicans really want to become the party of conspiracy theorists? Perhaps they do but it does not seem like a strategy that will win elections and it is certainly not a good strategy for the health of American democracy.
Based on the evidence, a Republican party that continues to be influenced by Trump will be one that is less conservative, more likely to lose elections and more conspiratorial. Democrats certainly wouldn’t mind Republicans losing more elections but that is a short term view of things. Regardless of political affiliation the U.S. is better with two healthy parties. Parties that offer clear ideological choices, believe in the basic processes of democracy and will engage in good faith arguments with some connection to the truth. Democrats undoubtedly have their own issues with these matters as well but the presence of Trump makes this a more pressing matter for Republicans. Regardless of what happens this week, Republicans should police themselves and weed out folks like Trump and Greene before 2022 and 2024.
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