Why Ukraine wants to be free from Russian influence
As Putin’s war in Ukraine continues, it has been widely reported that Putin expected a quick war in which Ukrainians would welcome “liberation” by the Russians. Putin has said on many occasions that the Russian and Ukrainian people are “one”. Without looking too deeply into the history of nationalism in Ukraine, I thought it’d be worthwhile to discuss why Ukraine wants to be free of Russian influence (even before the invasion) and why they may see the European Union as a more attractive future, despite their deep ties to Russia. The map below is of the results of the Ukrainian independence vote in 1991. As it clearly shows, Ukrainians voted to be free of any post-Soviet union with Russia by overwhelming margins in pretty much every region. So here are three reasons why Ukraine wants to be free from Russian influence, followed by a few random thoughts about what’s been happening.
1-Russia’s history of atrocities inside Ukraine. The holodomor is the name given for the genocide committed by Stalin against Ukrainians in 1932 and 1933. 3.5 to 7 million Ukrainians died, most in a famine caused by Stalin’s policies but many also in political executions. The link above explains the situation more thoroughly but the famine was the result of Stalin’s collectivization policies, which were both an agricultural policy and a political policy in order to control Ukrainian farmers. The invention of a category of people, the “kulaks”, helped provide a name to the supposed “enemies” of the Soviet Union. Ukrainian farmers were not allowed to keep any grain for themselves as the government took most of the grain to help supply the growing urban workforce needed for the rapid industrialization of the USSR. The result was mass starvation and execution of those who refused to collectivize. Anne Appelbaum’s Red Famine and Timothy Snyder’s Bloodlands covers this event in detail.
2-Post-independence political interference. Russia has consistently interfered in Ukraine’s politics, especially in its elections. For most of the 1990s Ukraine resembled many of the other post-Soviet states, with a corrupt leader who had made his political career in the USSR. Leonid Kuchma was Ukraine’s president from 1994-2005 and was their version of Belarus’s Lukashenko. Kuchma, however, became very unpopular leading up to the 2004 election because he was suspected of ordering the killing of a Ukrainian journalist. His prime minister was Viktor Yanukovych, and the 2004 presidential election was between Yanukovych (Putin’s favored candidate) and Viktor Yushchenko. Yushchenko was accused of being a “Nazi” (sound familiar) and was poisoned (sound familiar) in September leading up to the elections. Yanukovych was declared the winner after the second round of elections, which was widely regarded as rigged so he would win. This sparked what is known as the Orange Revolution, which was a number of protests calling for new elections. The elections were held and Yushchenko won.
Yanukovych, however, was elected president in 2010 and served until 2014, when he was deposed in the Maidan revolution. The Maidan revolution was instigated by Yanukovych’s decision to forego an agreement that would bring Ukraine closer to the EU and instead make the ties with Russia stronger. The result was a months-long resistance that Yanukovych attempted to brutally put down but ultimately was forced to flee to Russia. Elections were held and Ukraine has had two democratically elected presidents since then. The Maidan revolution is what triggered Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and actions in Donetsk and Luhansk. It’s easy to see why Ukraine would want to be out of Russia’s “sphere of influence”
3-Economic prospects of the EU. Below is a chart comparing Poland and Ukraine’s economic growth from 1990 onward. The EU offers a greater economic future than closer economic ties to Russia, which offer corruption and reduced trade. It is easy to see why Ukraine would want closer economic ties to Europe as opposed to Russia. As mentioned above, one of the sparks for the 2014 Maidan revolution was moving away from closer economic ties with the EU. Yes, Ukraine has been connected economically with Russia for many years but it has also been connected to EU countries, especially Poland, Lithuania and Romania. Watching those countries grow since the end of Communism while Ukraine has struggled certainly leads to a desire to be closer to the EU.
Random Thoughts (Round 5) on Putin’s War
#1-The Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine is slowing down and there could be some Ukrainian counter offensives within the next few weeks. One sign that Russia is worried about this latest offensive is the visit of top general Valery Gerasimov to the front lines. Gerasimov, as in the Gerasimov Doctrine, is Putin’s go to strategic military thinker; especially now that Shoigu has fallen out of favor. His visit demonstrates how worried Putin is about the military operation.
#2-The longer the war drags on in Eastern Ukraine, the worse off Putin’s standing at home will be and the more vulnerable he will become. This is perhaps why some of the coverage in Russia has shifted to the role of NATO countries in supplying Ukraine with weapons. If Russia is effectively at war with NATO, then that could be Putin’s excuse for not winning the war. It could also be an excuse for attacking NATO countries or using even more deadly tactics (tactical nuclear weapons) in Ukraine. There are rumors that Putin plans to announce a general mobilization of Russians on May 9 (Russian Victory Day). The rumors seem plausible, as Putin can’t announce defeat or stagnation on Victory Day. Something is likely to happen on May 9th, so it’s an important date to keep an eye on.
#3-One of the best things I have read on the conflict so far was published in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. Daniel Treisman’s article, “Putin Unbound”, provides a pretty convincing case for how Putin’s increasing repression at home combined with his increasing isolation, set the stage for the decision to invade Ukraine.
#4-Another interesting read is from the Meduza website. The translated article from Shura Burtin explains Russian support for the war and the media ecosystem that bombards Russians. It is a little long but worth the read if you are interested in the role of misinformation/disinformation in forming public opinion.