Welp, the first part of the “worst-case scenario” happened this week. We’ll talk about the potential fallout from the election of Trump, new documents that reveal what Russia wanted from Ukraine and continued Russian efforts to disrupt elections and the West.
What does Trump’s election mean for Ukraine? Most likely it means reduced American support. It is not just that Trump was elected, but that Republicans took control of the Senate and look likely to maintain control of the House. A Trump presidency, with a unified Congress and administration officials who are skeptical of support for Ukraine almost surely means less support for Ukraine.
Zelensky’s tweet, however, shows a possible path to get Trump to support Ukraine. Manipulate him through praise. Former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster (and many others) has pointed out how easily Trump can be manipulated through flattery. Usually this is to sound the warning of how someone like Putin or Xi can get Trump to act against U.S. interests. But, perhaps Zelensky, European leaders and pro-Ukrainian Republicans can flatter Trump into continuing aid to Ukraine.
Trump’s victory has direct consequences for Ukraine but also indirect consequences through relations with the EU and NATO. At the very least, Trump will be more adversarial in his rhetoric toward these institutions, causing doubt about the credibility of U.S. commitment. It seems almost unimaginable for the U.S. to pull out of NATO, but Trump did seriously consider it in his first term and there will be fewer serious people around him in his second term. I can hardly imagine a more disastrous decision.
Of course, there was always the possibility that Trump could win. In preparation, European and American officials have been taking actions to “Trump-proof” NATO. For example, coordination for training and providing military equipment has been taken over by NATO itself and not the U.S. In the last few months of his presidency, Biden can also take steps to minimize the effect of a Trump presidency. There is still about $6 billion in aid that has been allocated but the U.S. has not provided for Ukraine. Biden officials have said they want to rush this aid to Ukraine before Trump is inaugurated.
Still, Trump’s repeated statements that he will end the war within 24 hours are ominous. The only way to end the war is by forcing Ukraine into a cease fire. Putin has already said that Trump’s proposals deserve attention and Trump has an ally in Orban, who will advocate in the EU. New documents reported on by Meduza reveal what Russia was seeking at the beginning of the war. Ukraine was to almost completely disarm, remain permanently neutral, recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, repair damaged infrastructure in these regions, make Russia an official language and so on. The danger is that Trump thinks everything is negotiable. A few weeks ago, Trump suggested that Lincoln should have reached an agreement instead of engaging in the Civil War. If he thinks that slavery is negotiable, then he will push Ukraine to give up almost everything in exchange for a deal.
Trump’s supporters like to praise him for not “starting” any wars during his presidency. What they miss is that Trump does not believe anything is worth fighting for, so he will always compromise. It’s why he thinks the Civil War should have been avoided, why he thinks he can get Kim Jong-Un to be more peaceful, why he doesn’t understand why American soldiers would fight and die for their country and why Ukraine giving up its territory, language, and sovereignty is okay to reach a deal. Dangerous times indeed.
Two last things quickly. First, Russia appeared to interfere in the elections on Tuesday by emailing bomb threats to polling places in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. The FBI has linked the emails to Russian email domains. The results did not appear to affect the elections too much, but it is still troubling how easily Russia can cause chaos and how pervasive their efforts are.
Second, continuing that theme, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia allegedly planted two incendiary devices to start fires on planes heading to the U.S. and Canada. The devices were shipped via DHL and were initial tests of a larger plan of sabotage. Intelligence officials suspect that Russia may also have intended to destroy planes, on the runways and possibly in midair.
This is called terrorism, plain and simple. As the U.S. and others in the west worries about escalation, Russia is engaged in full on sabotage and terrorism. Unfortunately, the timing of this story, released a few days before the election, has meant that it has largely been ignored. If a Trump administration is more sympathetic to Russia, that could allow Russia to continue expand operations such as these. It is certainly something to keep an eye on.