What is Russia doing?
Diverting attention from domestic problems
Over the last several weeks Russia has amassed a large number of troops near the Ukrainian border; more troops than at any time since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The question is why? Russia claims it’s in response to Ukrainian provocations and has even suggested they fear a potential massacre, like the one at Srebrenica in 1995. This claim is absurd. The more likely explanation is that it’s an attempt to divert attention from Putin’s domestic problems...here’s my case.
#1-Leaders often use foreign policy to divert attention from domestic politics. Political science refers to this as the diversionary theory of war and it has enough influence that it has even found its way to pop culture, in the movie Wag the Dog. The classic example is Argentina’s invasion of the Falkland Islands during a domestic economic crisis in 1982. But diversionary tactics do not have to be conflict and are probably more likely to stop short of war. Increased rhetoric between rivals, such as Taiwan and China, or renewing concerns about disputed territory can serve the same diversionary function without the potential costs of conflict. In fact, Wiegand’s book argues that leaders often do not negotiate settlements to territorial disputes so they can serve this diversionary function when needed. Russia’s actions toward its neighbors, such as Georgia and Ukraine, intended to raise uncertainty about territorial possession fits this model perfectly.
#2-Putin has several domestic issues he may wish to divert attention from. While it is difficult to get an accurate poll of Putin’s approval ratings, the well-respected Levada Center shows a decline in Putin’s ratings. In fact, Putin’s ratings have not been this low since 2013 before he annexed Crimea in 2014. After the annexation of Crimea and beginning of the conflict in Southeast Ukraine Putin’s approval rating increased to the highest of his presidency. Diversionary theory suggests leaders will engage in diversionary behavior when approval ratings decline and they sense a threat to their power. What might Putin be worried about?
A-The economy has slowed down. Prior to the last quarter of 2020, Russia had experienced 4 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The pandemic made this worse, but the slide started before the pandemic. There are a host of reasons for this decline, such as sanctions, inflationary policy, money leaving the country and so on. All of this is exacerbated by the decline in demand for oil because of the pandemic. Putin has built much of his approval by turning around the economic chaos of the 1990s. If the economy starts to suffer Putin is in a less stable situation.
B-The new constitutional changes were just made official. Last summer Putin engineered changes to the Russian constitution that, among other things, would allow him to be in power until 2036. This led to widespread protests. About a week ago Putin signed these changes into law. Judging by the reaction last summer, Putin may worry that these changes are not popular and is looking for a way to avoid another round of protests.
C-Alexei Navalny is ill and in prison. Navalny was arrested upon his return to Russia earlier this year and since he has been in prison his health has deteriorated. He went on a hunger strike in early April to bring attention to his health problems. He has a fever, respiratory problems and loss of feeling in his arms and legs. This is likely a result of lingering effects of his poisoning, forced sleep deprivation and suspected tuberculosis. Last week doctors hoping to treat Navalny were detained outside of his prison. Navalny’s detention led to protests throughout Russia earlier this year. His death in prison would certainly lead to even larger protests. Whether Putin is trying to kill him or not, his deteriorating health makes Putin less stable in the short term.
#3-If Russia’s goal is to divert attention away from domestic problems, how should the West respond? An escalation in rhetoric and tension with Ukraine and the West would likely serve Putin’s interest, allowing him to put the focus on what the West is saying and acting as if he’s only responding to their aggression. This has already taken place, with Germany urging Russia to reduce its troops at the border and Russia disputing the content of the phone call between Putin and Merkel. The U.S. has also issued statements and Secretary of State Blinken has warned Russia there will be consequences if they take action against Ukraine. If Russia wants increased rhetoric they are getting it. Yet, the U.S. and the West can not let this go unnoticed; especially since they did nothing to prevent Russia from taking parts of Ukraine last time. Arguably this is a classic “speak softly and carry a big stick” scenario. The U.S. and others can make public statements condemning Russia’s buildup but save the sterner warnings for private conversations. Former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul also suggested moving some anti-tank missiles, already in Ukraine, to eastern Ukraine. Perhaps some additional quiet movement of troops and weapons to shore up NATO countries, such as Estonia and Poland, would also be advised. The situation calls for nuanced diplomacy that demonstrates the resolve of the U.S. and the West without providing increased fodder for Putin.
Based on the evidence it does seem that Putin’s main goal in the buildup is to divert attention away from his domestic troubles. Perhaps he feels that actually invading Ukraine is the best way to divert attention. But it seems more likely that by simply creating a crisis on the border he can get what he wants politically without the potential costs of actual conflict. As always, there are many different opinions about what Russia really wants. Regardless, this is the first major foreign policy crisis of Biden’s presidency and how he responds now may set the tone for the next several years. Responding too aggressively would likely enhance Putin’s domestic position and give him the foreign policy win he desperately wants. Responding too weakly may embolden Putin and lead him to the conclusion he can take more territory in Ukraine without much penalty. Striking the right balance will require skill, cooperation with allies and a little luck.
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