War in Ukraine

(“No to war” banner in St. Petersburg, Russia)

I obviously have not done one of these in a while and my intention was not to start up again.  But events in Russia/Ukraine over the last week have changed my mind.

Late last night (US time) Putin began his full-fledged assault against Ukraine.  This is the worst case scenario that many people (including myself) believed would not occur.  Here are some initial thoughts as we are all processing what this means.

1-This represents a drastic change in Putin’s behavior.  His national security council “meeting” on Monday, his speech later that day and his declaration of war last night portray him as someone who is paranoid and unhinged.  All three were truly frightening to watch. This article offers an explanation for Putin’s increasingly authoritarian behavior. 

2-Given number 1, there is not much the U.S. or Europe could have done to prevent this from happening, short of sending military troops to Ukraine.  Harsher sanctions are coming and the economic costs to Russia will be enormous.  But Putin had already factored this into his decision.  The only thing that would have served as a deterrent was the commitment of troops.  So unless people are willing/were willing to do this, all of the “tough guy” posturing about what the West should have done is meaningless.

3-Having said that, harsh sanctions and actions are necessary.  Russia needs to be cut off from the world economy.  More than that, Russia should not be allowed to act as a normal European country.  This should extend not only to economic sanctions, travel sanctions for those connected to the Kremlin but also to cultural/recreational events as well.  Russia should not be allowed to compete in Eurovision, international athletic competitions, such as the World Cup and European soccer league championships.  These things may seem meaningless but it is a signal to people in Russia that Putin has taken their government across a red line.

4-Speaking of people in Russia, be careful about describing this as Russia invades Ukraine.  It is Putin.  Be careful of acting as if all of Russia supports this or people are too cowardly to stand up to Putin.  Unless you’ve lived with real fear that if you speak out against the government you will be jailed and your life ruined, then you can’t judge decisions normal people make in a situation like this.  There are people protesting in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and throughout Russia.  Prominent Russian celebrities, journalists and academics have spoken out against the war.  All of these take more courage than most of us in the West can imagine.

5-Putin has seemingly been preparing for this domestically for some time.  The arrest and jailing of Navalny, the increased repression of non-governmental organizations and media outlets, laws restricting public protests all now look as if Putin was attempting to create a situation where he could control domestic politics as he launched his war.  The problem (I hope) for him is that Russia has a protest culture now.  This will likely only increase as the economic consequences of his decision become even more apparent to Russians.  Already, the Russian Ruble is in free fall, the Russian stock market has collapsed, banks are running out of currency.  All of this before the really harsh sanctions have been enacted.  Putin and his cronies may be able to weather the sanctions for a while, but they will hit the people in Russia harder and will likely result in more dissent inside of Russia.

6-This will probably be a fairly long conflict.  This initial phase may be quick and will likely result in Russia taking control of Kyiv and ousting the Ukrainian government.  But there will be continued Ukrainian resistance, show trials (and possibly torture/execution) of Ukrainian officials and whoever Putin decides is an enemy of Russia.  It will be difficult to watch from afar and will test the resolve of the U.S. and Europe.  Putin’s hope is that we will just kind of forget about it, as we did with Crimea in 2014 and Belarus in 2020.  It’s important this doesn’t happen.

7-This isn’t really about NATO expansion.  That’s a debate that Putin wants people to have to distract from the actual conflict.  Read this, which discusses this in further detail.  This also isn’t about U.S. politics.  The world doesn’t revolve around the partisan bickering of the U.S. or who is the President.  The U.S. does not always have the power to stop an event and foreign leaders do not always consider the U.S. in their decision-making calculus.  

8-Even if this isn’t really about NATO, it will strengthen NATO.  Countries like Finland and Sweden will likely seek to join NATO.  This only strengthens Ukrainian and Georgian reasons to want to join NATO.  Putin demonstrated why NATO is so important to countries in Central and Eastern Europe.  Putin poses a direct threat to their countries.  He has now made this threat explicit and it will result in a worse strategic position for him.

9-Obviously, don’t trust what the Russian government says about what’s happening in Ukraine.  They have consistently lied leading up to this, why trust them now?  Be careful in trusting videos or stories you see on social media.  Putin is a master at disinformation and spreading confusion.  For good, accurate information that is free from U.S. partisan bickering, follow Meduza and Kyiv Independent.

10-Pray for Ukraine and pray for peace.