No more strings attached...sort of
Last week we discussed Russia’s foreign relations, primarily with China. This week, Ukraine has been making news in the realm of foreign relations. First, for about the last month talk has been brewing about the use of weapons from NATO countries to hit targets inside Russia. Second, Ukraine has also concluded a series of bilateral security agreements with European countries and have more on the way. In addition, election season is warming up, so we will discuss upcoming elections in Mexico and the European Union.
Situation in Ukraine and Russia
The West has offered a great deal of support to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. It is safe to say that without western support, Ukraine would have already lost this war. But that support has often lacked the necessary speed and scope. Ukraine has asked for weapons, such as tanks and planes, only to be told no at first and then eventually yes. In addition, sometimes the aid comes with conditions, most notably that Ukraine cannot use long range weapon systems to strike targets inside of Russia. The targets Ukraine has hit inside of Russia have, at least officially, been the result of their own drones and missiles. This lack of speed and scope has hindered Ukraine’s ability to prevent further attacks and go on the offensive against Russia.
The recent Russian offensive against Kharkiv has demonstrated just how hamstrung Ukraine is. As the map above indicates, Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second largest city) is very close to the Russian border. The prohibition of using weapons to strike targets inside of Russia, means that Ukraine must watch Russian forces gather just across the border and launch missiles from sites just across the border but is unable to attack. This is why, especially since the offensive began, Ukraine has been pressing western countries to allow it to use provided weapons to strike targets inside of Russia.
Why are countries concerned about striking targets inside of Russia? The ever-present fear of escalation. Every time western countries are considering providing Ukraine with another type of weapon, or increasing their support, Russia pulls out its trump card of nuclear weapons. This type of nuclear saber rattling by Russia has been going on for a long time and is utterly predictable. The simulated nuclear launches they did with Belarus last week are a good recent example. Some fear that if U.S. weapons are used to strike targets inside of Russia, leading to the death of Russians, Russia may escalate and use nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are obviously serious business and, as a child of the 1980s, the fear of nuclear holocaust is born into my brain. I still have nightmares about the Day After.
But, I’m not convinced that Russia will actually use nuclear weapons. Former PM and President Dmitry Medvedev came out recently to warn the west that Russia is serious, but Medvedev is not a serious person. Trotting out the threat of nuclear weapons is Russia’s only tool to prevent the West from assisting Ukraine. Responding emotionally to these threats is not the right option. Looking at the situation rationally, including monitoring the steps Russia would need to take to actually get their nuclear weapons ready for launch, is a better approach to the threat.
The good news, from Ukraine’s perspective, is that they have received the go ahead from some countries at least. The UK, France, the U.S. (with some caveats perhaps) and others have all said that Ukraine can strike targets inside of Russia. The U.S. and Germany highlighted the need for self-defense in Kharkiv, while the UK and France provided broad permission. This is very good news for Ukraine and can help alleviate some of the pressure on Kharkiv, which has been under attack every day for about a month. The recent attack against the Epicenter shopping center in Kharkiv, in which over 18 people were killed while simply shopping, certainly increased pressure on the U.S. to change its stance.
This is not the only good news for Ukraine. Ukraine has sealed 12 bilateral security agreements with European countries (and Canada), with over $23 billion in support. These agreements have been signed over the course of several months, the most recent one with Norway and Sweden. They are expected to finalize an agreement with the U.S. and sign it during the G7 Summit in a couple of weeks. These security agreements are meant to signal continued Western support for Ukraine. The agreements are generally for 10 years, which leaves open the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO while still pushing it off to the future. Hopefully, they signal to Putin that the West will not abandon Ukraine.
One last short thing about religion in Russia. For some, Russia is held up as a defender of traditional, Christian values. This is an image that Putin has carefully crafted, both at home and abroad. However, Russia is not a utopia for religion. The graph below, from political scientist Ryan Burge, is what has me thinking about this. The notion that Russia is a deeply religious country is fundamentally flawed, not least because of what it is doing in Ukraine. But, as you can see, Russia is near the bottom of the list in active members in a religious organization. It is the lowest European country, below even Czechia (a country where more people believe in aliens than God) and far below Ukraine and the U.S. Next time you hear something about Russia and religion or traditional, Christian values, think about this graph.
Elections
There are two big elections coming up. First, tomorrow, June 2, Mexico will be having elections for president and the legislature. Mexico is not very active in the Ukraine-Russia conflict but, it’s still an important country in Latin America that has some influence on how the region views the conflict. The outgoing president is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO. He is an interesting figure. He is a left-wing populist with policies not too dissimilar to those of Trump or other right-wing populists. When he has spoken about the war in Ukraine, he has predictably criticized U.S. support for Ukraine and called for peace talks.
The likely next president is Claudia Sheinbaum, who worked with AMLO when he was the Head of the Government of Mexico City. Sheinbaum held that same title before she resigned to run for president. She is less of a populist than AMLO and more of a traditional, left-wing politician. It is difficult to find any statements she has made about Ukraine but I would guess that the official Mexican policy toward the war will not change. Mexico has not been part of the sanction regime against Russia and they are likely to stay out of it. The one thing that may change for the positive, is that she will likely discuss the conflict less than AMLO and focus more on domestic issues. The election is obviously very complicated, as is the relationship between Sheinbaum and AMLO, but it is worth paying attention to the results.
The other big election coming up is for the parliament of the European Union. The elections are somewhat complicated, but essentially each country holds separate elections to fill the 720 seats (15 more than last time) in the European parliament. Each country elects representatives, either under national party banners or independently. But once in the parliament, they tend to work under general party groupings that are ideological. The three largest groupings are the European People’s Party (center-right), Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (center-left) and Renew Europe (center). These three groups have ruled as a coalition over the last several years.
These three will likely get the most votes again and continue to form a coalition government. The interesting thing to watch will be the performance of the far-right groups, that tend to be not only skeptical of the EU but also European support for Ukraine. The European Conservatives and Reformists is to the right of the European People’s Party but has shown a willingness to cooperate. The Identity and Democracy group is the further right and most anti-Ukraine support. If they do very well, it could be a sign of growing weariness with European support for Ukraine. It will not immediately change EU policy but should serve as a caution about how long that support will last.
The elections begin in some countries on June 6 and finish in most EU countries on June 9. We will certainly discuss the results next week.