Two years of war in Ukraine
And some highlights of Russia's "election"
My last post on Ukraine/Russia was almost two years ago. A lot has happened since then, but I will just hit some of the events that have stood out to me over the last two years. If you want a full recap of what has happened, this article provides a good summary.
Here are some quick(ish) thoughts about what has happened over the last two years and what the situation is right now. I certainly won’t cover everything, so if I left out something or you want to hear more about something, let me know in the comments.
Situation in Ukraine and Russia
Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. One of the obvious effects of Russia’s invasion has been to strengthen NATO. This is true even with the decreasing certainty of support from the U.S., discussed below. Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has reinforced the necessity of an organization like NATO and the benefits of membership. Finland and Sweden, both of which share borders with Russia, have long been reluctant to join but were convinced by Russia’s actions. Russia’s invasion has also increased the desire of other countries, such as Georgia, Moldova and, of course, Ukraine, to join the organization as well.
U.S. support is increasingly uncertain. Even forgetting about the upcoming presidential election in November and how U.S. support for Ukraine may change because of who wins, support for Ukraine in the government and population has begun to weaken. The most obvious, and meaningful, example is the struggles to get a new aid package for Ukraine approved by Congress. I will leave the U.S. politics aside, but Ukraine is facing a shortage of necessary supplies and ammunition, just as Russia is ramping up its attacks. We are at a very crucial moment in the conflict and the delay and uncertainty caused by the U.S. could be catastrophic. A majority of American still support economic and military aid to Ukraine, but the numbers have decreased since 2022 and Republican support is below 50%. As those numbers continue to decline it will only make it more difficult to get Congressional approval to allocate the needed funds.
Thankfully, European support has remained strong. There are some worrying signs, such as the protests by farmers in Poland against Ukrainian agricultural products. And Hungary is an exception to the rule. But Europe has outpaced the U.S. in terms of aid as a percentage of GDP, with countries like Estonia leading the way. Individual countries, such as the Czech Republic, have taken the initiative to help Ukraine with its ammunition shortage and French president Emmanuel Macron is attempting to place France at the head of the resistance to Russia. In a recent interview, Macron refused to take the option of French troops in Ukraine off the table. He did not say French troops would be in Ukraine but allowed for that possibility. This is a drastic change in the foreign policy of the West toward the war in Ukraine. While many countries, most notably the U.S., still explicitly reject the idea of their troops fighting in Ukraine, Macron is attempting to move the policy toward one of strategic ambiguity. The hope is that it will deter further Russian aggression.
Protests inside of Russia have not been consistent or widespread. I had hoped at the beginning that protests would consistently emerge and weaken Putin’s ability to conduct his war. That has not happened for two reasons. First, the government has cracked down on any type of dissent. A recent example is a man who last fall held a sign reading “Free Navalny” and was sentenced to 7 years in prison. That type of oppression has a chilling effect on public displays of opposition. (This is what makes the demonstrations related to Navalny’s death even more impressive). The second factor is that a majority of Russian society is either supportive or apathetic with respect to the war. Public opinion surveys in Russia are always problematic, and the support for the war is mostly as long as they are not asked to sacrifice any more. But the combination of oppression and apathy prevents larger protests. The danger for Putin is that as he expands the war, and as the war continues to go on, it will be difficult to shield the public from the costs. The economy is weakening, and 315,000 casualties affect a large segment of society. The most dangerous type of protests for Putin are from mothers who have lost their sons and wives who have lost their husbands. It was one thing to imprison democracy activists but much harder to imprison grieving mothers and widows.
Putin has been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). On March 17, 2023, Putin, along with Maria Lvova-Belvoa, was indicted by the ICC for the war crime of the unlawful deportation and transfer of children. Lvova-Belova is the Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights in Russia. On the one hand, the indictment is meaningless. Neither Ukraine nor Russia is part of the treaty establishing the ICC and, more importantly, Putin must be arrested and taken to the court in The Hauge, Netherlands, for a trial to proceed. That is unlikely to happen. But the indictment at least signals that Putin should be held responsible for his war crimes. Russia has transferred Ukrainian children to Russia, in an attempt to make them “Russian.” The numbers are difficult to estimate, but Lvova-Belova herself in 2023 put the number of affected children at over 700,000. The number and consequences are staggering. This issue has likely not received enough attention and will certainly be one of the worst legacies resulting from this war.
Ukraine has stepped up attacks inside Russia, largely through increased use of drones. Early in the war, many feared that attacks inside of Russia would escalate the conflict. How can you escalate a full-scale invasion? Nuclear weapons. Since the beginning of the war people have warned that attacks inside of Russia would lead to Russia’s use of nuclear weapons...but so far that has not been the case. Ukraine has attacked cities (including Moscow), oil refineries and weapons factories without “escalation” by Putin. From a military strategy and technology standpoint, one of the legacies of this war will be the use of drones by Ukraine, as well as Russia. But Ukraine’s ability to use drones to strike deep into Russian territory is surprising and requires more study. The most noteworthy innovation is the use of maritime drones by Ukraine. They have used them effectively enough to sink Russian warships. This innovation will surely be copied by other countries, and non-state actors such as pirates, and used in future combat.
Russia is and will continue to use the recent terrorist attack as justification for the war. On March 22nd, a terrorist attack occurred during a concert at the Crocus City Hall just outside of Moscow. The estimates are that over 140 people died and greater than 551 were injured from gunshots and the fire started by the terrorists. Most western and independent sources point to the group known as ISIS-K as being behind the attacks. ISIS-K is an offshoot of ISIS in Afghanistan that has been upset with Russia for what they consider are anti-Muslim policies. The attack is tragic for multiple reasons. The obvious reason is the tragic loss of life and the hundreds of lives affected by the attack. Second is that the attack was perhaps avoidable. The U.S. warned the Russian government an attack like this was possible and specifically mentioned the Crocus City Hall. Finally, the attack will be used to increase hatred toward Ukraine and the west. While Russia has arrested 4 Tajik citizens for the attack, Russia claims that Ukraine and the west were behind the action. This will prevent Russian law enforcement from doing what is necessary to prevent future attacks like this, because they will have to go along with the Kremlin narrative that the real danger is from Ukraine and the U.S. It was also result in increased violence in Ukraine. Several people have already volunteered to join the military and fight Ukraine following the attack.
Elections
Russia held presidential “elections” from March 15-17. To no one’s surprise Putin was re-elected by a wide margin. According to the “official” totals, he received the highest percentage of votes yet and there was a record voter turnout. Of course, it is all a farce. Putin’s alleged vote percentage is only surpassed by the authoritarian strongmen of Central Asia. The election in Russia is not interesting because of the results but it is interesting for two reasons.
First, the lead up to the election saw the murder on February 16 of Alexei Navalny, Putin’s main rival and a symbol of hope for many in Russia. Putin had arrested Navalny for political reasons. In no way should Navalny have been in the prison where he died. There is no hard evidence of how he died or whether he was intentionally murdered by Putin. But it does not really matter. Even if Navalny died from “natural causes” his lack of medical care was a result of his unjust imprisonment and his health problems originated with his attempted murder by poisoning. Putin’s hands are all over Navalny’s death.
One of the striking consequences was the public displays of mourning in support of Navalny and what he stood for. It was a small glimmer of hope in a country without much hope. It may not lead to immediate change in Russia, but perhaps it will be similar to the death of Andrei Sakharov in 1989. Sakharov, a physicist, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate was a dissident and human rights advocate in the USSR. His death resulted in a large, public outpouring of support for him. In hindsight, many view it as a sign of the increasing lack of support for the Soviet government. May the large, public outpouring of support for Navalny indicate the same for Putin’s government.
Second, the elections set the stage for Putin to complete Russia’s transformation into a war state. The language and imagery of the campaign was focused on Putin keeping Russia strong and secure from its enemies. Although Russia’s elections under Putin have always been shams, the lack of any kind of alternative candidate and Putin’s ridiculous vote totals signal the consolidation of war power around Putin. Navalny was killed before the election, so his voice could not offer an opposing view. Even the mildly opposition candidate, Boris Nadezhdin, who advocated for stopping the war in Ukraine, was eventually forbidden to run because of “irregularities” in the signatures supporting his candidacy. The election was a celebration of Putin’s war in Ukraine with no alternative views allowed.
Putin will use the result to ramp up his efforts in Ukraine. Even before the election he publicly stated there could be no negotiation with Ukraine. Following the election, Putin signed a decree calling up 150,000 citizens for statutory military service. There has also been an increase in recruitment efforts. In one 10-day period, 16,000 people “signed up” to join the military and in 2024 around 100,000 total have done so. Russia needs more soldiers, as it has experienced approximately 315,000 casualties, as estimated by the U.S. government. Putin obviously feels secure and confident enough following his sham election to direct a deeper mobilization of the Russian society for war.
Next week, the elections section will focus on upcoming elections in Croatia and India. The full list of 2024 elections can be found here.