Trump's "peace" is not possible and is not peace

President Zelensky came to the U.S. to meet Trump, expecting to hash out a mineral deal. Instead, he was ambushed by Trump and Vance, who not only embarrassed themselves but America. This was followed by Zelensky visiting the UK and being embraced by European leaders, who vowed to continue their support for Ukraine. Yesterday, Trump announced that the U.S. would halt military aid to Ukraine until Zelensky demonstrates “a good-faith commitment to peace”. If it was not clear before, it is abundantly clear now that Trump has sided with Russia. The “peace” he is pushing is not possible and it is not peace.

I want to elaborate on why I think the “peace” Trump is pushing is not possible and not really a peace. First, Trump and his cabinet are fully bought in to conspiracy theories and Russia’s disinformation. Zelensky’s statements of fact, about Russia as an aggressor or Putin’s violations of cease fire agreements were met with disbelief from Trump and Vance in the Oval Office meeting. Trump eventually got to his greatest hits, mentioning Hillary, Biden, Hunter Biden and the “Russia hoax”. When Zelensky invited Vance to come to Ukraine, Vance responded by saying “he’s watched videos” and claiming that Ukraine took visitors on “propaganda” tours. Tulsi Gabbard went on a Sunday morning talk show and repeated Kremlin talking points. The vast, vast majority of Republican members of Congress are unwilling to state the obvious, that Russia invaded Ukraine. And the narrative that Zelensky is a dictator and Ukraine needs elections is taken as a given. All of these are straight from the mouth of Putin.

But this is not surprising. Whether or not you believe the 2020 election was stolen is the litmus test to get into the Trump administration. The FBI director is a QAnon advocate. The HHS secretary believes vaccines cause autism, Wi-Fi breaks down the “blood barrier” in your brain, and that COVID was genetically engineered to not affect Jews. The Director of National Intelligence believes that Syria’s Assad was falsely accused of war crimes. The second in command at the FBI became famous for spreading all kinds of conspiracy theories on his podcast and social media accounts. An administration, led by a president, that is so disconnected from reality will never view the war in Ukraine as it really is. Zelensky, who has lived the reality for three years understands this better than anyone.

There can be no real cease-fire or lasting peace agreement when the U.S. takes the side of Russia against Ukraine and the truth. The thing that set the whole Oval Office meeting off was Vance’s insistence on diplomacy and how Ukraine needed to accept a diplomatic end to the war. Zelensky asked Vance, “what diplomacy” and pointed out the multitude of times that Russia had broken previous cease-fires. Zelensky knows he cannot trust the word of Putin. He has lived through that reality. Trump believes he can accept the word of Putin but not that of Zelensky. There can be no just and fair agreement if this is the case.

Zelensky knows this. Trump’s first impeachment was because he threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine unless Zelensky investigated supposed corruption by Hunter and Joe Biden. This was all based on Russian disinformation. Zelensky knew that it was false. He had the president of the United States threatening real world action based on a conspiracy theory. Trump’s embrace of Putin and hostility toward Ukraine was evident from the beginning. Here we are six years later, and Trump has (unconstitutionally) halted aid to Ukraine because he feels Zelensky is not committed to peace. What this means is that he is not committed to Russia’s (and Trump’s) narrative of how “peace” should be achieved.

One of the most revealing moments of the Oval Office meeting was Trump talking about how he and Putin went through the “Russia hoax” together and how unfairly Putin was treated. Trump sees Putin as a friend, a fellow survivor who understands all the unfair treatment that Trump has received. Zelensky is on the other side of that; a part of the “unfair treatment” for his refusal to investigate the Bidens. There is no negotiating with that. This is why Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that Trump’s foreign policy largely aligns with the vision of the Kremlin. Zelensky understands this because he has lived it since he has been President. The rest of us should understand it if we have been paying attention.

That is why the peace Trump is pushing is not possible. He has a fundamentally flawed view of the reality of the situation that aligns with Putin’s vision. But the “peace” he is discussing is also not a real “peace”.

Again, the basic plan is a “cease-fire” followed by elections in Ukraine for a new president, and then more substantial peace negotiations. Trump’s addition to this is the mineral deal, which he believes will commit the U.S. to protect the security of Ukraine. More on that in a second.

The plan concedes large chunks of Ukrainian territory to Russia. The Ukrainians living in these occupied territories will not experience peace. They will be tortured, oppressed, and executed. The kids that Russia has kidnapped from Ukraine will not experience peace. Trump goes on and on about how he wants the killing to stop, and he may be sincere in that desire. But the cease-fire he is pushing will not stop the killing. It will only remove it from the eyes of the public and allow Trump and others to forget about it.

The cease-fire also will allow Russia time to regroup and continue their full-scale invasion of Ukraine at a later date. If they get a pro-Russian Ukrainian president elected, they can get concessions that will make it all easier. This is how Russia has operated in Georgia, in Ukraine previously. This is standard procedure in many conflicts. Get as much territory as you can, sign a cease-fire, regroup, start the fighting again. Putin has broken several agreements already and has demonstrated that he can’t be trusted.

Trump thinks this time it’s different for two reasons. First, he is the president now, not Biden or Bush or Obama. He thinks Putin respects him, so he won’t break the agreement. He is, of course, wrong about this.

But the second reason is the mineral deal. He thinks Putin would not attack Ukraine if there would be American business interests there, and if he did attack then surely the U.S. would fight back. Unfortunately, he is wrong about this as well. There were already American business interests in Ukraine. Trump should realize this given his belief that the Biden’s had extensive business dealings inside Ukraine. But outside of these conspiracy theories, there were American and European business interests inside of Ukraine when Russia invaded the first time in 2014 and in 2022. It did not stop them from doing so and it did not result in the U.S. guaranteeing the security of Ukraine.

This is where Zelensky finds himself. He knows that he can’t trust the words of Putin. But he also can’t trust America. Trump is obviously in Putin’s camp, but the U.S. has also not made good on its promises to Ukraine. When Russia invaded in 2014, we did not do much. Europe did not either. Zelensky is seeking guarantees, not just words. NATO is a guarantee, or at least it used to be. European or American troops in Ukraine would be a guarantee. How can you negotiate a peace when you can’t trust either side? This is the situation Ukraine finds itself in.

So, what will happen? Nobody really knows but this is what I suspect will happen. Trump and Putin will negotiate their own plan for a cease-fire. They will present it, as is, to Ukraine and Europe and say take it or leave it. They will rightly leave it. Trump will use this as an excuse to make the pause in Ukrainian aid permanent, and to remove the sanctions against Russia. Putin and Trump will announce their own mineral deal between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. will then firmly be on the side of Russia against Ukraine and the rest of the free world.

I hope I am wrong. I hope Trump is really playing 8-dimensional chess and he is on the side of Ukraine. But I don’t think that’s the case. It’s not just the last month, but Trump’s entire time in politics that tells me otherwise. He is clearly sympathetic to Russia, clearly bought in to Russian disinformation, and clearly feels a connection to Putin. How can there be a fair and just peace for Ukraine in such a situation?

P.S. I apologize for not including links to sources but it is midterm time. If you want sources for confirmation let me know in the comments.