Trump abandons Ukraine

Realigning US foreign policy toward Russia

I wanted to write about some other things, and maybe will later, but with all the Ukraine news, this will be an old-fashioned list of random thoughts. The unifying theme is just how much the Trump administration has realigned the U.S. with Russia against Ukraine and Europe.

#1-Monday, February 24, will mark the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. To mark the occasion, Ukraine is seeking a UN resolution that will condemn Russia as the aggressor and call for it to withdraw from occupied territories. A similar resolution was introduced on March 2, 2022, and was adopted with 141 countries voting in favor and only 5 voting against. The U.S. was in full support back then. Three years later, and most importantly under a different president, the U.S. has introduced a rival resolution to Ukraine’s, that does not call out Russia as the aggressor or demand its withdrawal but simply laments the loss of life from the war.

All of this is mostly symbolic and there are no real consequences resulting from the resolution, but in the field of diplomacy this is an unthinkable turn of events. The opposition of the U.S. to Ukraine’s resolution signals that the U.S. is aligning itself with Russia and Russia’s version of events. Simply outrageous.

#2-Trump's belief in the Russian narrative was underscored in statements in press conferences and social media where he said that Ukraine should not have “started” the war by stating its desire to join NATO. Trump has also suggested that Zelensky is a “dictator” who has a 4% approval rating and before a final peace deal is done, Ukraine needs to have elections. This is all straight from the mouth of Putin.

I wrote about Russian disinformation before and how so much of it is parroted by Trump and others in the GOP. Trump’s VP JD Vance also did his part spreading Russian disinformation in his speech in Munich. Vance went after the policies of European democracies on immigration and free speech, in the same way that Russian media criticizes these policies. Vance also chastised Germany for creating a “firewall” preventing the far-right, and possibly Neo-Nazi, AFD party from joining the government. Also, a Russian media talking point. And finally, he criticized Romania for cancelling their recent election because of widespread Russian interference. Russian disinformation is dangerous enough, but now with the President and Vice-President of the United States amplifying and spreading these lies and false narratives, it is a grave threat.

This should not be surprising. After all, in Trump’s first administration he sided with Putin and Russian intelligence over U.S. intelligence. He also attempted to pressure Zelensky to investigate Hunter and Joe Biden based on a conspiracy theory started by the Russians. He made Michael Flynn his first National Security Advisor, despite his obvious ties to Putin. And this time around, he has made Tulsi Gabbard the Director of National Intelligence, despite her obvious sympathies for Russia. It is not as if there were no warning signs.

#3-Outside of just talk, Trump is taking actions that align the U.S. more with Russia than Ukraine and Europe. Most notably is in the negotiations for a cease-fire agreement. The U.S. met with Russia in Saudi Arabia, without Ukraine and without European representatives. Ukraine is not only a sovereign country but is a pretty important participant in the war. Everyone has rightly said all along that no cease-fire can be reached without Ukrainian participation. Negotiating a deal over the head of Ukraine and then presenting it to them to accept it or else, is exactly what Putin has wanted.

Trump also conceded multiple things to Putin before any negotiations took place. First and foremost was sitting down with Russia without Russia having to give anything. Second, multiple people in the administration, including Trump, said that Ukraine joining NATO was not feasible. Third, the U.S. has taken the stance that Ukraine cannot go back to the pre-2014 borders...which are the internationally recognized border of Ukraine. In addition, the idea of removing some of the sanctions on Russia and removing troops from the Baltic countries have been floated, without Russia having to do anything.

Even if everyone knows that Ukraine will not regain all its territory or that membership in NATO is unlikely to happen soon, these are bargaining chips to give away only when Russia is forced to give up something as well. It is diplomatic malpractice to give away all leverage before you even sit down for negotiations. It is everything that Putin has hoped for all along.

#4-Not only is Trump giving away leverage against Russia, but he is also attempting to strong arm Ukraine. The “deal” for U.S. access to Ukraine’s mineral resources is nothing but extortion. Trump has submitted two separate proposals, the second more unfair than the first. The idea is for Ukraine to “repay” the U.S. for the aid it has given and unless they sign the deal, they will not get aid going forward. Trump wants $500 billion in payment, for the approximately $100 billion the U.S. has “given” Ukraine.

There are multiple problems with this. First, it is unseemly for the U.S. to try to take advantage of a country literally fighting for its survival. Unseemly, unethical, and immoral. But Trump seems to fancy himself a mob boss, so here we are. But even leaving all of that aside, why should Ukraine have to pay back the U.S. with five times more in return? Also, a significant amount of the “aid” took the form of the U.S. government ordering new weapons from American companies and sending existing stock to Ukraine. So, the U.S. updated their existing stock of weapons and ammunition, while creating economic activity for American companies. This is hardly “giving” money to Ukraine for nothing.

There are reports out now that Musk may cut off access to Starlink satellites for the Ukrainian army if it doesn’t sign the “deal” for Ukraine’s mineral, and oil, and gas resources. This even though Poland is paying for the Starlink subscription, and Musk is not providing it free of charge, as he has repeatedly claimed. This is more evidence that the Trump administration is more comfortable using leverage against Ukraine to achieve concessions than it is with Russia.

#5-No one knows what will happen. The outline of a cease-fire/peace deal has emerged, which is exactly what Putin wants, and Trump has seemingly endorsed. Step 1 is a cease-fire agreement, Step 2 is elections in Ukraine, Step 3 is a peace deal. Here is why Russia wants this to happen.

First, the initial cease-fire will allow Russia some time to recover and gather up its strength. Despite JD Vance wish-casting that Russia’s victory is inevitable, a recent and comprehensive study clearly outlines all the problems Russia is currently facing, both on the battlefield and at home.

Second, the elections serve Russia’s purpose in three ways. First, it will reinforce the idea that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader. Second, elections will not take place in the territories that Russia currently occupies. Russia will use this to argue that it is a sign these territories are not part of Ukraine but are independent, or a part of Russia. Third, Russia will interfere in the election with the hope of getting a Ukrainian president friendly to Russia who will give them what they want in a peace deal. Russia has a history of interfering in Ukrainian elections, and there is no doubt they would attempt to do so this time around as well.

Third, a peace deal will be unfavorable to Ukraine and Russia will have no intention on keeping it. There was a peace deal after the 2014 conflict and Russia did not honor that. The peace deal will just buy Russia more time to build back up its military and continue to try to interfere with the internal politics of Ukraine. Whatever security guarantees built into the deal will be worthless. There is some speculation that in such a deal, if Russia violates the peace agreement, Ukraine will get instant NATO membership, but this is not going to happen. NATO members like Hungary, and the U.S. under Trump, will not allow it, and there will be disputes about what is an actual violation of the peace deal.

The only cease-fire and peace deal that will be stable is one where Ukraine is a party to the talks, and where Russia must make significant concessions. Trump has no desire to pursue such a deal.

The Trump administration is planning for a Trump-Putin summit to talk about the end of war in Ukraine. There is a rumor out there that Trump may join Putin in Moscow for the Victory Day celebration on May 9. If this takes place, it will be outrageous and solidify the realignment of American foreign policy.

Even absent a Trump trip to Moscow, the last 10 days of diplomacy has clearly indicated a shift in U.S. priorities. Under Trump, no longer will we be on the side of democracies, but we will be on the side of dictatorships. Abroad, and quite possibly at home as well.