This time it's different

The protests in Russia over the last two weeks have been different from previous Russian protests and represent a significant change in Russian politics...here’s my case.

The protests in Russia over the last two weeks have been different from previous Russian protests and represent a significant change in Russian politics...here’s my case.

#1-First, let’s briefly look at what’s been happening.  Alexei Navalny is an opposition figure in Russia who rose to prominence during protests in 2011 and 2012.  He has run for mayor of Moscow and attempted to run for President in 2018 but is best known for his videos and reports exposing corruption in Russia in general and of specific politicians, such as former President and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.  He has been arrested several times and has had a chemical thrown in his face as well.  In the last six months he has gained more attention after he was poisoned, recovered in Germany and was arrested when he returned to Russia on January 17th.  He was likely poisoned by Russian security services with the knowledge and probable approval of President Putin.  The story, by the website Bellingcat, linked above has a more detailed explanation.  Following his arrest, which many viewed as unlawful, protests were organized across Russia last Saturday, the 23rd, and this past Sunday, the 31st, resulting in thousands of protesters being arrested.

#2-Protests are not new in Russia.  The largest protests in the last 20 years in Russia occurred after parliamentary elections in December of 2011.  Around 50,000 protesters in Moscow converged on Bolotnaya Square, leading to these protests (and related protests throughout 2012) to be referred to as the Bolotnaya Protests.  These protests were largely about another election in Russia that was neither free nor fair and the inevitable return of Putin to the presidency, which happened after the Presidential elections in March of 2012.  The Bolotnaya protests occurred in many cities outside of Moscow but were not consistent and as time went on the number of protesters diminished.  Russia had several other protests from 2011 to the present, they were mostly focused on local issues, such as destroying a park in Yekaterinburg or the arrest of an ex-Governor in Khabarovsk.  Even the protests in Moscow have often been about local issues, such as demolishing homes or landfill locations.  So while protests are not new in Russia, they have largely focused on local and regional issues as opposed to national issues, such as greater freedom or explicitly anti-Putin protests.

#3-The protests in Russia over the last two weeks have been different.  The protests that occurred yesterday, January 31st, took place in approximately 142 cities across Russia.  That is a lot.  The sheer size of Russia (about twice the size of the U.S.) has always made coordinated political mobilization difficult.  The fact that the protests have occurred everywhere across Russia signals a change as compared to what occurred before.  The Bolotnaya protests in 2011, which were the largest, reached around 88 cities.  The crackdown of the Russian government has been greater this time around as well.  Around 5000 protesters were arrested on Sunday alone.  In both the scale and government response, the protests in Russia resemble the ongoing protests in Belarus.  The size and scope of these protests are clearly different than what has come before.

#4-The protests represent a significant change in Russian politics.  Navalny was a well-known figure before his attempted murder and arrest but was probably more popular outside of Russia than within.  The last six months has increased awareness of him inside of Russia as well as increased his popularity.  In a recent poll of protesters in St. Petersburg, Navalny was trusted by 86% of them.  His recent video exposing Putin’s corruption in obtaining a gigantic palace in the south of Russia has 105 million views in just two weeks.  Putin’s approach has always been to downplay the importance of Navalny, to the extent that he never uses his name and Russian state TV rarely discusses him.  This game by Putin is becoming increasingly difficult.  Not only did the Russian government attempt to assassinate Navalny, they also closed down an entire airport as Navalny returned to Russia so Navalny would have to land at an airport where his supporters were not present and then arrested him immediately.  All of this has led to protests all across Russia where thousands have come out (sometimes in -50 degrees celsius weather) and have been met with arrests and beatings.  It is hard to pretend that Navalny does not exist and that Putin is not worried about him, which will lead more and more people to look into Navalny’s investigations and videos.  The danger for Putin, and what Navalny has been successful at over his career, is that people will start to connect the same corruption and incompetence they protest over at the local level with the broader Putin system that allows and even encourages such behavior.  Navalny has gone from city to city with this message in the past and now because of the attention Putin has inadvertently given him more people will hear it.  The other large issue below the surface are the constitutional changes Putin made this summer, which will essentially allow him to be president until 2036.  Perhaps in the past Russian citizens were willing to put up with a little corruption and an unfair electoral system because the quality of life had improved under Putin and there appeared to be limitations on his time in office.  But now with another unfair election to confirm the constitutional changes and the prospect of Putin in office for another 15 years, the “social contract” has been broken and people are less afraid to call for a change.

Based on the evidence it is clear that something different is happening in Russia.  The protests are of a different type than those in the last decade and Putin’s grasp on power is not as strong as it was.  The example of the protesters in neighboring Belarus certainly creates a different situation in Russia as well.  Putin will likely not be removed from office.  The more likely scenario is what is happening in Belarus.  Putin can survive the protests through a combination of repression and simply time.  But the protests will raise further questions about Putin’s stranglehold on office and decrease his legitimacy with the Russian people.  This means that the next big scandal or the next crisis Putin will be more vulnerable and it will be more difficult for him to “win” another election going forward. Navalny’s return has created a headache for Putin. If he kills him, Navalny will become a martyr and Putin’s hold will be even more tenuous. If he keeps him in jail for an extended period of time, Navalny will still serve as a rallying point for ongoing protests and discontent. If he lets him go, Navalny will emerge as a hero who Putin was unable to kill or imprison. Regardless of what Putin chooses, he is facing a different Russia than two weeks ago.

If you wish to keep up to date on what’s happening in Russia, the Meduza website is one of the best.

Campaign Ad

Sticking with the Russia theme, this 1984 ad by Reagan is one for the more confusing ads in existence.