The forgotten giant
Why U.S. foreign policy needs to include Indonesia
When it comes to discussion about Asia in the U.S. it is all about China, China, China. This changed this past week as President Biden had meetings with Australia, India and Japan, known as the “Quad”. While this is a welcome change and likely a good policy path to pursue, one country is always forgotten in U.S. foreign policy discussions about Asia. Indonesia deserves more attention from the U.S. (and probably the rest of the world too)...here’s my case.
#1-Indonesia is large in almost every way. Indonesia has over 270 million people, making it the fourth largest country in the world, just behind the U.S. Indonesia is predominantly Muslim, making it the largest Muslim country in the world. Yes, the largest Muslim country in the world is in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is also a democracy, which means it’s the third largest democracy in the world, behind only India and the U.S. Indonesia’s population is only growing with an expected population of close to 331 million in 2050. Indonesia is only 14th in land area but it is the largest archipelago with around 17,500 islands. It stretches about 3,181 miles from end to end, which is slightly longer than the distance from Portland, Maine to Seattle Washington. Indonesia has the second highest level of biodiversity in the world and the third largest rainforests. Indonesia also has the most mammal species in the world. The list could go on and on but by now you get the picture. Indonesia is large demographically, physically and ecologically.
#2-Indonesia’s economy is rapidly growing as well. In current U.S. dollars, Indonesia’s GDP per capita in 1967 was just over $53. By 2019 it had risen to $4135, an increase of about 7700%. As a point of comparison, Pakistan, which has about the same number of people, had a GDP per capita of $139 in 1967 and $1284 in 2019. An increase of about 823%. Indonesia is well positioned to continue growing rapidly. Indonesia’s literacy rate has grown steadily over the last fifty years, to 95.66% currently, which creates a strong foundation of a large number of educated workers. The country’s manufacturing output, exports and tourism income have all steadily grown while poverty and hunger have decreased. Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of palm oil, steam coal and refined tin as well as the second largest producer of rubber, robusta coffee (the most populous island is named Java after all) and fisheries products. It holds about 40% of the world’s geothermal energy reserves and is the 5th largest exporter of liquid natural gas. The country is rich in many other natural resources and is not lacking in fresh water reserves. The large and literate population, along with an abundance of natural resources and an ideal location, provide Indonesia with limitless economic opportunities moving forward. As U.S. relations with China become more difficult, Indonesia holds promise as a trading and manufacturing partner in the future. Indonesia was only the United States’ 28th largest trade partner in 2019. Indonesia’s growing economic opportunities can also help the U.S. economy grow if the trade relationship between the two countries intensifies.
#3-Indonesia is located in a geostrategically important position for both shipping and in relation to China. The United States showed more interest in Indonesia during the Cold War because of its location and saw Indonesia as an important bulwark against the spread of communism in Southeast and East Asia. Of course, this led to U.S. support of the dictator Sukarno, who in 1965-66 promoted an anti-Communist purge resulting in the death of around 500,000-1 million people. (There was also apparently a romance novel set during this year, which was later a movie with Mel Gibson and Sigourney Weaver). But U.S., and others, interest in Indonesia is related to its prime location on a number of shipping routes. Shipments from Korea, China, Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan going west or south to Australia have to travel through Indonesian waters. The Straits of Malacca, which are bordered by Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, are a key choke point in international trade and in oil going to China and Japan. Indonesia’s location along these important shipping routes makes it an important country to maintain good relations with, not only for U.S. trade but for international trade more broadly. Indonesia is also strategically located for many of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. These disputes involve China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia. The dispute grows in intensity as China continues to build islands in order to stake claim to more of the sea and continues to ignore the U.N.’s international tribunal ruling rejecting China’s broad territorial claims in the sea. The dispute is intense enough that it is often discussed as the potential starting point for the next world war. A strong Indonesia that is close to the U.S. would provide a key ally in attempting to resolve these disputes.
#4-A strong relationship with a growing Indonesia would also serve as a check on China’s interests elsewhere in the region. The purpose of the “Quad” is to provide a check on Chinese power in Asia. Including the third most populous country in Asia and first in Southeast Asia into that working group would seem like a smart move. As the Indonesian economy continues to grow it will be looking for greater foreign investment and larger markets for its manufactured and agricultural goods. Currently, China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner with the United States third. China is increasing its influence in Southeast Asia. Outside of the Philippines, the U.S. has the strongest history of relations with Indonesia in the region. A recommitment to U.S.-Indonesian relations, including greater trade and investment, could go a long way in the future struggle between China and the U.S. in the region. Although the threat from China to the U.S. is often overblown, China has arguably been most active in advancing its power in Southeast Asia. The U.S. would be wise to pay attention and make a strong partner of the largest country in the region.
Based on the evidence it is clear that Indonesia deserves more attention from the U.S. and should be a larger part of long-term foreign policy in the region. Outside of the geopolitical considerations, Indonesia’s unique history and ecology make it deserving of more attention as well. Not only will it be important in the region’s political struggles it will also be important for global economics, energy and the environment. The “Quad” should become a “Quintet”.
Campaign Ads (now sometimes travel videos?)
Instead of a campaign ad this week I thought a travel video may be more appropriate. These short Lonely Planet videos are kind of like ads for countries...at least that’s what I’m telling myself to justify including this video.