Terror Strikes Russia Again

Another terrorist attack in Russia is the big news from the week. In addition, official EU membership talks for Ukraine began, the International Criminal Court issued more arrests and North Korea sent some military engineers to assist Russia in Ukraine.  

Situation in Ukraine and Russia

Earlier this year, on March 22^nd, the Crocus City Hall music venue near Moscow was attacked, resulting in over 100 deaths. This week, on June 23^rd, there was an attack in two cities in the Russian region of Dagestan. The attackers targeted a police post as well as two Orthodox churches and two Jewish synagogues. The death toll so far is 26, including the 5 attackers.  

Dagestan is a predominantly Muslim region in southern Russia. It borders Chechnya, the Muslim region of Russia that has twice tried to break away from Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. As I mentioned in a previous post, it is likely that as Russia continues to focus its resources on Ukraine there will be more unrest inside of Russia. While Russia may try to pretend that everything is harmonious, the same conditions that led to Islamic terrorism and conflict in the 1990s and 2000s still exist. The weakness of Russia provides the opportunity for these forces to become active once more. 

Russia has predictably blamed the west, suggesting that they want to start another front in the war against Russia. In the past Putin has used attacks like these to strengthen his position at home, give himself more power to address the threat, and show that Russia has common security interests with the west. The current situation does not allow him to do that. Instead, he erroneously blames the west, puts the focus on Ukraine and only addresses the threat at a surface level. His failure to be honest about the nature of these types of events will only lead to more. 

The event is obviously horrendous in its own right but is also symbolic of the toll Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has taken on Russia. Despite all of the talk of a good economy, the sanctions have inflicted real pain on Russia. The growth in Russian GDP is largely a mirage, a result of increased military spending, which is not sustainable. Russia is isolated, with even fewer friends than before and as the war drags on in Ukraine, it will be harder for Putin to keep the country economically secure and physically safe. 

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for two Russian senior military officials. The former defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were both accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity: specifically, targeting civilian populations. On the same day, the European Court of Human Rights found Russia guilty of human rights violations in Crimea since its annexation in 2014. These two actions are unlikely to result in any consequences, it is a sign of the atrocities committed by Russia, not just since the full-scale invasion of 2022 but dating back to 2014. 

On Tuesday, both Ukraine and Moldova began EU membership talks. The talks are the first step in a very long process that will hopefully result in both countries joining the EU. By long process, I mean a long process. The laws of any potential EU country must mostly fit with existing EU laws and regulations, a body of laws known as the acquis communautaire. This body of laws addresses human rights, governance, industry, economics, agriculture, trade, and just about everything else. It takes a while. But you must start before you can finish, and this is a good sign for both Ukraine and Moldova. 

Elections

The big election news is the upcoming election in the United Kingdom on July 4^th. Current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak of the Conservative Party, called for general elections in late May of this year. Why he called for early elections no one is quite sure as his party stands to lose and lose by quite a lot. As the graph from Politico above indicates, Labour has a 20 point lead on the Conservatives. Some polls even show the Reform UK party with a lead over Conservatives. The election will be a disaster for Conservatives, Labour party leader Keir Starmer will likely be the next PM but the policy of the UK toward Ukraine is unlikely to change. 

From a Ukraine war perspective, the big thing to watch is just how well the Reform Party does. While not the official leader, politician Nigel Farage has become a vocal spokesman for the party. Farage was a leading voice in favor of the UK leaving the European Union (Brexit) but has gained traction by blaming the Conservatives for botching Britain’s exit. 

Earlier this week, Farage said that the war in Ukraine was the West’s fault because of NATO expansion. The comments resulted in harsh condemnations leading Farage to walk back the comments slightly. Blaming NATO for the war in Ukraine is straight out of Putin’s playbook. Statements like this from Farage, along with his connection to Brexit lead to some troubling concerns about his views on Russia. Research shows that Russia actively tried to influence the Brexit vote, both through information warfare in news and social media, but also with direct contacts of British politicians. Farage regularly appeared on Russia Today, a state-owned and propaganda-ridden Russian television station. 

If the Reform Party does perform well in the July 4^th elections it will mostly be about domestic issues inside of the UK and immigration. However, Farage represents a certain type of politician that is friendly with Russia and regularly parrots Kremlin talking points. They exist in all countries in Europe, as well as the US and Canada, and on both the right and left. They are generally on the fringes without majority support but can still influence the debate in negative directions. A strong showing for Farage’s party will give him a larger platform to further spread Kremlin propaganda.