Some Random Thoughts about Ukraine and Russia
Tomorrow, May 9th, Russia will celebrate Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet victory in WWII. It is fair to say that this is the biggest state holiday in Russia. Countless books have been filled with the importance and the memory of WWII in modern Russian politics. I will leave all that to others but want to take the chance to get caught up in what’s happening inside of Russia and Ukraine. So, here are some random thoughts.
#1-Victory day has a chance to be embarrassing for the Putin administration. Russia has already called off planned events in Crimea because of security concerns. Putin has declared a 3-day cease-fire, indicating his worry that the festivities in Moscow may be interrupted by drone attacks. Ukraine has increased their drone attacks inside of Russia in recent days, and the possibility that they could strike Moscow tomorrow seems fairly high.
Part of the strategy is to remind Russian citizens they are at war. Putin attempts to use Victory Day to justify Russia’s greatness and connect modern wars, such as in Chechnya and Ukraine, with the patriotism Russians feel for WWII. An attack on Moscow during the parade could shatter this narrative and demonstrate how insecure Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made Russia. That is what Ukraine hopes at least. It could have the opposite effect as well. Attacking Russia on what amounts to a civil religious holiday could result in more support for Putin and his attacks on Ukraine.
#2-Even if Ukraine does not attack, Russia’s weakness will be on display. The guest of honor at the parade will be China’s leader, Xi Jinping. He will be center stage, next to Putin at every step. Putin will want to portray this as a symbol of strength. China, and its massive population and military stand with Russia. But it is also a sign of just how reliant Russia has become on China; it’s only friend of note.
Other foreign dignitaries will include the leaders of Belarus, Brazil, Serbia, Slovakia, Armenia, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and several more. Hardly a stellar list of the great powers of the world. Notably absent are leaders from Europe (with the exceptions of Serbia and Slovakia) and WWII allies of Russia. It will be a visual symbol of just how isolated Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made Russia and as a result, how reliant they are on the support of China.
#3-We have a minerals deal. The U.S. and Ukraine signed a minerals deal on May 1st. The deal is a long way from the initial proposal by the Trump administration. The deal creates a shared investment fund managed jointly by the U.S. and Ukraine, but Ukraine maintains ownership of all its mineral resources. In addition, U.S. companies will receive priority in potential contracts for resource extraction. The deal does not require Ukraine to “pay back” the U.S. for assistance already provided and does not include any security guarantees for Ukraine.
The larger importance of the deal is symbolic. It allows Trump to save face and could, potentially, hopefully, result in better relations between Ukraine and the Trump administration.
#4-It turns out Trump did not know about the decision to stop sending military aid to Ukraine in late January. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave the order after cutting aid was discussed at an Oval Office meeting, but a decision was not reached. Hegseth apparently took it upon himself to go ahead with the order.
Add this to the tally of Hegseth’s errors and incompetence. In one sense, Trump comes out of this looking more pro-Ukraine than when it was assumed he ordered the halt of military aid. The minerals deal, along with Trump moving slightly more toward Ukraine, may be the reason that Putin wants to have a conversation with Trump. We will see if that happens and what Trump says afterward.
In another sense, Trump, and his administration, look increasingly incompetent. The other day when Trump was asked about potentially sending immigrants to Libya, he acted as if he had no clue, which is a growing theme. Former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s Signal scandal, Hegseth’s many mess ups, the fact that the U.S. Navy has lost two jets in the Middle East in two weeks, and the bumbling nature of the tariffs all lead to incompetence in foreign policy. This incompetence does not send a good signal to U.S. allies and emboldens Russia and China.
#5-North Korea has been helping Russia on the battlefield, now they are sending 15,000 workers to help the Russian labor market. This is yet another sign of the growing weakness of the Russian economy. Estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine range from 164,000-237,000 people. This does not include those injured. In late 2024, there were approximately 580,000 Russians fighting in Ukraine. The combination of deaths, injuries, and conscripts being forced to fight has reduced Russia’s workforce tremendously. It is truly an unsustainable situation.
#6-Russia may be laying the foundation for invading Lithuania. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, wrote a foreword to a Russian book that challenges the idea of Lithuania statehood. The book sounds eerily similar to statements by Putin and others about Ukraine leading up to the invasion. For example, the book suggests that Lithuania’s government is the successor to the pro-Nazi dictatorship, embraces a pro-Nazi ideology, and stays in power through repression. It is a good reminder of how Russia approaches many of the countries who used to be in the Soviet Union. Lithuania is a NATO member, but Trump’s past statements about NATO (along with his administration’s incompetence) make NATO commitments less credible. Something to keep an eye on.
#7-This one is not directly related to Ukraine/Russia, but the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has ordered its intelligence agencies to increase spying on Greenland. The intention is to learn more about the Greenland independence movement and to evaluate attitudes about American resource extraction. There are two troubling things about this. First, it confirms that Trump is serious about Greenland. In an interview earlier this week, Trump reiterated that he will not rule out the use of military force. The desire to increase intelligence operations in Greenland are very troubling within this context.
Second, it mirrors Russia’s attitude and methods toward former Soviet republics, such as Georgia, Ukraine and Lithuania. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine “declared independence”, it was much of the same logic. People in those areas wanted to be free from Ukraine and Russia was simply helping them. The U.S. wants to find people in Greenland (Greenlanders?) that want independence or to join the U.S., so they can portray them as being oppressed and the U.S. merely helping them out.
Combine Greenland, Canada, and Panama and you get similar rhetoric to Russia. The border between Canada and the U.S. is not real, Canada only works as a U.S. state, the Panama Canal is really the property of the U.S., and so on. Worrying to say the least.