Some more random thoughts about Putin's invasion
Here are some additional random thoughts as Putin’s war continues, focused mostly on Russia because that is what I study.
1-Over the last week there have been several more elite defections in Russia and continued protests. The elite defections have come from almost all circles, including even former military. Unsurprisingly, however, there have not been elite defections at the highest level. The protests continue, but with harsher repressions from Putin, they will likely become smaller.
2-Russia has turned into a totalitarian country in a matter of days. It is now a large North Korea. The government has censored internet sites, closed the last remaining independent media outlets inside of Russia and put in place harsh restrictions on reporting and free speech. If you refer to the war as a war instead of a “special military operation” you can get up to 15 years in prison. Western media outlets are removing staff and suspending reporting. All of this will make it harder to get information out of Russia and puts dissidents inside of Russia at much greater risk. Putin’s Russia has always been authoritarian and there has always been a danger in speaking out, but there was some space for dissent. That is no longer the case. It is truly a chilling situation.
3-People are leaving Russia because of all of this. In the 1990s many Russians left due to economic circumstances. The so-called “brain drain” meant that many of the most skilled and talented Russians pursued opportunities elsewhere, making it even more difficult to recover economically. I fear the same will happen now. Many of the most talented journalists and political activists will understandably flee Russia to protect themselves and their families. This will make it more difficult for Russian civil society and economic recovery.
4-The economic effects of Putin’s war will be astounding if it continues on its current trajectory. Each day, each hour, more and more companies leave Russia. IKEA alone will result in 15,000 lost jobs. Shipping container companies are refusing to deliver to Russia. There will be food and supply shortages. Banks, companies and Russia itself will default on loans and money will run out. It looks as though China will either not help or be cautious in its lending to Russia. Regardless, the economic losses will be staggering.
5-The above is not to suggest that the sanctions shouldn’t occur or to minimize what’s happening to Ukrainians. Obviously Ukrainians are dying and facing continued threat to their physical existence. Over 1 million people have already fled Ukraine; their lives completely altered forever. Again, I focus on Russia because that is what I know best in this situation and the political, social and economic effects of Putin’s war are ruinous for Russia. As Putin destroys Ukraine through physical violence, he is also destroying Russia.
6-Russia is like North Korea in becoming more totalitarian and in becoming more isolated in the global community. Four countries voted with Russia on the recent UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia: Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria. These are Russia’s best friends at the moment and the degree to which Putin’s invasion has isolated Russia.
7-Propaganda and media bubbles have incredible strength. This BBC story is shocking. A woman in Kyiv tells her mother in Russia about the bombing of civilian areas by the Russians. The Russian mother doesn’t believe it and simply responds with Russian TV talking points. We have seen versions of this in the United States over the last several years but imagine the pervasiveness of propaganda that leads a mother not to believe her daughter when her life is in danger. This type of media ecosystem is a poison in our world.
8-Although there is unity in the international community now, and especially in the West, I fear that this will break down over time. The longer the war goes on the more likely fractures will occur. In Europe, this could be typically Russian-friendly countries like Hungary, Bulgaria and Italy starting to call for a relaxation of sanctions or Russian-fearful countries like Poland, Estonia and Latvia, calling for the European community to do more. Either way, I don’t think it’s safe to expect the level of unity we are seeing now to continue indefinitely.
9-Related to that, it will be more and more difficult for Europe and NATO to stay out of this war if it continues on its current trajectory. Increased Russian bombings of civilian areas, Russia using harsh tactics on Ukrainian civilians in occupied cities and so on will create pressure on Western governments to do something. We are already seeing this with calls for a no-fly zone. This is typical in conflicts like this but there are two specific accelerating factors in this situation. First, social media videos will increase demand for action from Western publics. In the 1990s the political science literature discussed the CNN effect, referring to images of war, violence, famine broadcast on 24/7 cable news that increased calls for the U.S. to get involved in various situations, such as Somalia and Bosnia. Now we should be talking about the TikTok effect.
The second accelerating factor is Volodymyr Zelensky. He has become a legitimate international celebrity and hero. Just look at the picture above of the crowd in Prague for his speech. If Zelensky is killed or captured, that will also result in increased pressure on Western governments to become involved. Of course, the worry then is the escalation from a limited intervention (such as no-fly zone) to an expanded war between NATO and Russia.
10-Finally, I do not see much hope for a negotiated settlement (my predictions are often wrong, hopefully that is the case here!). Putin has consistently had four criteria for a settlement: recognition of Crimea as Russian, recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk independent republics, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. Even if the first two were feasible (which they probably are not) the last two are impossible. No one even really knows what he means by denazification. Putin has already committed so much to this war that he can’t really risk losing it, which means he will escalate until he “wins” it. Zelensky and Ukrainians have also demonstrated they have no interest in a Russian controlled government in Kyiv. There may be cease-fires along the way to allow each side to regroup but I’m afraid that the war will not end until one side can simply no longer fight. That could be the Russians winning in a conventional way or the combination of a successful Ukrainian defense and Russian inability to muster more resources to continue fighting. But unfortunately I do not see a path to a negotiated end.