Some mixed signals from the U.S.
Last week I focused on mostly positive news from the West. Actions, such as allowing Ukraine to use weapons to strike targets in Russia and a series of bilateral security arrangements signal continued commitment to Ukraine. This week, the news coming out of the U.S. is a little more mixed.
Let’s start with the good news from Ukraine’s perspective. June 6th was the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in France. Leaders from several countries were there, including U.S. President Biden. He used his speech to not only thank the veterans in attendance for their service, but also to draw parallels to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s actions during WWII. He called Putin a “tyrant” and said the U.S. would “not walk away” from the conflict. Other world leaders also showed support for Ukraine and Zelensky, who was in attendance. All in all, an optimistic sign for Ukraine.
However, Biden also gave an interview to Time magazine in which he said any kind of peace deal doesn’t mean that Ukraine joins NATO and later said “I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine.” This is not the news that Ukraine wants to hear. He did suggest support for Ukraine but made pretty firm statements about their inclusion in NATO.
The above statement, along with Biden’s decision to skip the peace summit Ukraine is organizing is a blow to Ukraine. Zelensky called Biden’s decision a “gift to Russia”. Biden will instead be attending a campaign fundraiser in Hollywood and sending VP Kamala Harris to the peace summit in his place. It is a reminder of the importance of domestic politics in all the discussion related to Ukraine. International relations always occurs on at least two planes and leaders must find policies that are acceptable at the international and domestic levels. And, during elections, domestic considerations often trump international ones. Biden’s statements and actions related to the situation in Gaza can also be viewed through this lens.
Another piece of news that is both positive and negative, is the first prisoner of war swap in months. Ukraine and Russia exchanged 75 POWs each. It’s obviously great news for the Ukrainians returning home. The negative aspects come in when you look at the photos of the Ukrainian POWs. After two years in Russian custody, they look like images from WW2 concentration camps. Perhaps this is what Biden had in mind when he was comparing the current situation to WW2.
The pictures and stories of the POWs are a reminder of the continued atrocities Russia is committing in this war. Life in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine is not good. Again, echoing Soviet actions in WW2, there are reports of sexual violence in addition to the removal of children, extralegal executions, forced deportations and torture. This is why supporting Ukraine is so important and discussion of immediate cease-fires is, in the end, a pro-Russian stance. I think most people advocating this policy are well-intentioned, but it is premised on a false choice. A cease-fire does not bring peace. There is still violence, death and suffering for those stuck in Russian-occupied Ukraine. It may make it easier for those outside the country to ignore, but it is a reality for the people in those regions.
In election news, the results of India’s month-long elections are in, and are somewhat surprising. It probably does not have a direct effect on the situation in Ukraine but is interesting, nonetheless. Current leader, Narendra Modi’s BJP party lost its majority. Modi will still be the leader of the government but will have to be in a coalition with other parties, which will provide some checks on what he wants to do. Again, policy toward Ukraine is unlikely to change, but it is perhaps a sign that India wants to push the brakes a little on Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism.
The first results in the EU parliamentary election are being reported, with most countries holding their elections tomorrow. As discussed last week, there is some concern that the far-right will add to their number of seats, which could be bad news for Ukraine. The Netherlands held elections on Thursday, and the early exit polls indicate gains for the far-right party of Geert Wilders. Ireland and the Czech Republic voted on Friday, June 7 and the rest of the rest of the EU votes this weekend. We will discuss the official results will be discussed next week.
Finally, and briefly, Mexico did elect Claudia Sheinbaum president in their elections last week. She won with around 60% of the vote. Again, this will not have much impact on the situation in Ukraine, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how much her rhetoric and policies diverge from her predecessor, Lopez-Obrador.