Russia and China against the West?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has frayed its relationship with many countries around the world. However, the action has seemingly brought Russia and China closer together. Putin has visited China more than any other country since the invasion and China’s support has become vital to Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. We’ll explore this relationship more as well as examine the reshuffle inside the Russian military leadership and nuclear exercises with Russia’s other good friend, Belarus. 

Situation in Ukraine and Russia

Russia and China have not always been the best of friends. The famous Sino-Soviet split in the late 1950s was followed by Nixon’s visit to China in the 1970s and the opening of China’s economy to the West in the 1980s. The size of China’s population and its eventual economic growth always meant that it would be the stronger partner in the recent relationship with Russia. While China has grown rapidly since the 1980s, Russia’s economy has struggled. Russia’s economy has been hurt by its invasion of Ukraine and it has now become dependent on China. As the figure below shows, trade with China has grown a great deal since 2021. Russia, increasingly cut off from its old European partners, has become reliant on China to sustain its economy and its war effort. 

Not only has economic trade with China increased, but China’s support militarily is also increasing. It always made sense that as European bough less oil and gas from Russia that China (and India) would buy more. However, it is has been uncertain whether China would provide military assistance. That uncertainty led Russia to buy military supplies from North Korea. Now, it appears that China is, at the very least, providing the necessary components Russia needs to manufacture drones and ammunition. A senior British official this week accused China of providing “lethal aid” to Russia, something that the U.S. has said they have not seen evidence of yet. 

China’s official stance is one of neutrality, but its economic support of Russia and whatever support they are providing militarily, is without question assisting Russia’s war effort. In addition, the meeting a few weeks ago between Putin and Xi, as well as the meeting prior to the invasion, indicates that China is firmly behind Russia. It is difficult to have a “friendship without limits” and be neutral. 

It is obvious that Russia benefits from this partnership, but what is in it for China? There are the obvious economic benefits of getting cheaper energy from Russia, but these are balanced by the potential reduction in trade with the West. One reason why China’s public statements about the war have been so measured is they are trying to avoid sanctions from the West for their support for Russia. The economies of the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea are still much more important to China than Russia, so it’s a dangerous balancing act.  

Diplomatically Russia and China have the same goals; to counter U.S. influence and create “spheres of influence”. I think this is the main reason that China would like Russia to succeed in Ukraine and why it continues to provide economic and material support. China would like to do something similar in Taiwan, the South China Sea and its disputed islands with Japan. Much like Russia wants the West to keep its nose out of its near abroad so it can continue its neo-imperialist foreign policy, China wants the same thing in East and Southeast Asia. Russia’s success in Ukraine, which will require the U.S. and Europe to back down, will make China’s control over its sphere of influence more likely. 

Domestically, Xi and Putin are very similar. They both have messy Communist histories to deal with, so they tend to emphasize the imperial past and nationalism more. They both broke/changed the political rules of their countries so they could stay in power longer. And, they are both aging leaders whose old model of legitimacy has disappeared and now are reliant on nationalism and militarism to stay in power. Niether can rely on economic performance for legitimacy anymore, so they have turned to increasingly nationalistic and authoritarian measures to stay in power. 

China’s support for Russia is crucial, and if it were possible to pry China out of Russia’s orbit, Russia would certainly fail. But the way Russia and China’s interests align domestically and diplomatically that seems very unlikely. However, because China’s so reliant on other economies, it also seems unlikely that China will openly provide Russia with the same time of military support that the West has been supplying Ukraine. China wants Russia to win, but not at any price. If the West can maintain its strong support for Ukraine (and maybe increase it) then China’s influence can be neutralized. 

An ongoing story inside Russia is the reshuffling of senior military personnel. Since April, six senior military/security officials have been arrested for “corruption”. This does not include the reassignment of Russia’s longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the position of Secretary of the Security Council. Now, there is certainly corruption within the Russian government and military. The early failures of Russia’s invasion revealed the level of corruption and incompetence that exists. So, the obvious explanation for these arrests is that following his “election”, Putin is cleaning house of corrupt officials that he blames for the failures in Ukraine. That is the most obvious and most likely explanation. 

However, there is all sorts of speculation. The two other possible explanations are that this is payback for officials who may have supported Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt and that this is a turf battle within the Russian military. The first would indicate Putin is further consolidating his power and the second would indicate some active divisions among the senior Russian leadership. Something to keep an eye on. 

A last thing to keep an eye on is the joint military exercises Russia is conducting with Belarus. On the heels of Putin’s recent visit with Xi, he visited his friend in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, for two days. The big story to emerge is the joint exercise simulating the launch of so-called tactical nuclear weapons. The main distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons is that tactical nukes are meant only to achieve battlefield objectives, whereas strategic nukes are intended to “end the war”. However, that distinction is somewhat academic as the tactical nuclear weapons we are talking about are more powerful than the bombs dropped by the U.S. in Japan. 

It is always a debate about whether Russia will actually use nuclear weapons and they have used fear of the prospect of nuclear weapons to slow down the West’s assistance to Ukraine. Every time a new weapon or policy for further support is debated in the West, Russia trots out the possibility of nuclear weapons. These drills are almost certainly more of the same, but because of the severity of the weapons, they are still some cause for concern. 

Elections

On May 29^th, elections will take place in South Africa. The main contest will be between the current President, Cyril Ramaphosa of the Africa National Congress (ANC) and John Steenhuisen of the Democratic Alliance (DA). The ANC is the party of Mandela, but has been losing support recently, with only 30% of the public approving of its leadership in a recent Gallup poll. However, as the graph from the Economist above shows, Ramaphosa is likely to win re-election. 

South Africa is one of the larger and more influential countries in Africa. With respect to Ukraine, they have been formally neutral, but in their actions, the ANC has taken a more pro-Russian stance. The ANC has received donations from Russian sources, and Russia has been active in trying to influence the outcome of the election. 

Steenhuisen and the DA take a friendlier stance toward Ukraine. Since the beginning, Steenhuisen has made it a point of distinction between his party and the ANC. While the war in Ukraine is not an important issue in the election, the outcome of the election could have influence on support for Russia’s invasion. The re-election of Ramaphosa will mean continued support for Russia and Putin, while a win by Steenhuisen will mean greater support for Ukraine from a pivotal African country.