Reasons for hope?

I have been wanting to write a more optimistic post for a while, but it is difficult with all of the craziness. As I write this Sunday night, the markets are almost certainly going to have a bad day on Monday, with the Japanese stock market already falling by 9%. I will still try it and highlight five things that could be viewed as hopeful signs.

1. According to estimates, over 5 million people turned out on Saturday across 100 plus "hands off" protests. Now, I have my criticisms but as a public expression of dissatisfaction and frustration with the current administration, this is very good. Democracy requires accountability and feedback channels from the public to the government. Elections are the most obvious examples, but there need to be such channels in between elections. Contacting government officials, lobbying by interest groups, and journalism are other examples. But protests are as well. Freedom of assembly is one of the democratic freedoms protected by the 1st amendment and this is why. The effectiveness of the protests is related more to the signal they send to members of Congress and others than to Trump and the White House. People need to know it is okay to oppose his policies and it will not hurt them politically. The larger and more consistent the protests are, the more that message is sent.

2. Relatedly, Trump’s approval ratings have gone down. They are still higher than one would expect, but it demonstrates that some people are willing to judge his actions and not blindly follow him. This is mostly about economic issues now, as he still has consistent support for deportations and eliminating “DEI” stuff, but as time goes on, those will likely suffer as well. Disruptions in the economy create instability and chaos, and the path that Trump is pursuing is more disruptive and chaotic than most. Just like the 2008 financial crisis and the fallout of the pandemic, economic uncertainty bleeds into other parts of life. The chaos of stock market crashes, price increases, and higher unemployment will get connected to the chaos of illegal deportations, government services ending and cultural figures, such as Harriet Tubman, being removed from public life. As the approval ratings decline across the board, this is another signal to other political actors that they can go against Trump.

3. These uncertainties are being highlighted in the press and that is another factor in further reducing support for Trump, among the population and political actors. The Wall Street Journal front page above is devastating. The symbolism of the economy tanking while Trump goes to one of his golf clubs to enrich himself with Saudi money is a “let them eat cake” type moment. The White House posting about Trump winning the senior tournament at his golf club is North Korea levels of tone-deafness. The commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting that millions of jobs consisting of people screwing in little screws on iPhones are coming back to the U.S. is robber baron elite disconnection. The economy will only get worse and Trump and his administration’s lack of recognition of how bad things are will only hurt him.

4. The economic uncertainty and crash have led to oil prices plummeting. This is especially good news because it takes money away from Russia. Russia’s economy, and more importantly government revenue, is highly dependent on high oil prices. If oil prices continue to fall or remain low, Russia’s economic problems will be exacerbated. They will be unable to not only continue purchasing weapons and ammunition, but Putin will struggle to pay off elites inside of Russia. Russian elites and those in Moscow and St. Petersburg have largely been unaffected by the war so far. Consistently low oil prices will change this. Perhaps this is Trump’s plan all along...of course I’m kidding.

So, there you go. Four items of good news that provide me with some hope. As stocks tumble on Monday and the economic chaos intensifies, perhaps it will also hasten the end of Trump’s magical hold over American politics.