Random Thoughts on Putin's invasion...Round 7
This week, I’m reviving a format from a few years ago. A lot is happening, so let’s focus on some quick and random thoughts from Putin’s invasion.
#1-Zelensky's victory plan was apparently leaked in the U.S., leading to understandable frustration from Zelensky. Some of the frustration certainly stems from the fact that the victory plan was not well received. It was apparently mostly just a request for additional types of weapons, and the part that was leaked was a request for Tomahawk missiles. But the frustration is rightly directed at the U.S. government and its inability to keep classified information, well, classified. If U.S. media knows about the victory plan, so does Vladimir Putin.
#2-Things are not going well on the battlefield for Ukraine. Things have been relatively stable over the last month but over last week or so Russia has started to make advances, especially north and west of Donetsk. Part of the issue is that Ukraine’s defenses past their line of control are apparently not extensive, and the concern is what happens if Russia is able to bust through those. The city of Zaporizhya may be in danger. Russia is also making gains in taking back its own territory in Kursk. Russia has also been active in northeast Ukraine and the city of Vovchansk has been especially hard hit, essentially bombed out of existence. It’s yet another reminder of Russia’s brutal, illegal, war tactics.
#3-Ukraine and Russia have been in negotiations to call a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s energy production capabilities have been hard hit and Russia’s oil and gas industry has been hit as well. Ukraine’s concern is the upcoming winter and ability to provide heat and electricity during these months. Russia’s concern is more focused on their economy as Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries have had an impact. But the presence of negotiations demonstrates there are still communication channels open.
#4-Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian party, “won” elections in the country of Georgia. Georgia has a parliamentary system, with both a PM, who is from the Georgian Dream party, and a president, who is from the opposition. The president said that the elections were not free and fair and called for protests. The linked interview above provides a good overview of the situation. There were some initial protests, and more certainly to come, but they do not seem to have the momentum they would need to lead to a significant change in Georgian politics. Hungary’s pro-Russian PM Viktor Orban went to Georgia to congratulate the “winners”. At this point, Orban is just messing with the EU and they should kick Hungary out of the organization.
#5-Speaking of election issues in Georgia, the American state had some election interference this week. A video claiming to show a group of Haitians illegally voting in Georgia’s election was spread across social media. The only problem, the video was a fake and U.S. intelligence agencies say that Russia is responsible. Russia’s interference in the countries of Georgia and Moldova is more brazen, even paying people to vote and instructing its supporters in the same tactics, such as ballot stuffing, used inside of Russia. But the dangers of Russia’s interference, especially in spreading misinformation, in U.S. elections are real.
#6-I made a mistake last week and said that the runoff for Moldova’s presidential election was last week. It’s actually tomorrow, November 3. The pro-EU, anti-Russia candidate is Maia Sandu. The pro-Russian candidate is Aleksandr Stoianoglo. Hopefully Sandu wins but either way, I’m guessing that next week we will be talking about Russian interference in Moldova.
#7-Finally, there are elections in the U.S. this week as well. Hopefully we will know the outcome of the presidential election by next Saturday, and hopefully we will not be talking about interference, rigged elections and election protests. I’m not optimistic. The election seems to be a truly 50-50 election (as the 538 average above shows) but if one side thinks they are going to win, and they don’t, then that leads to trouble. Obviously, it doesn’t help when Trump tries to sow doubt in the result of the election before it even happens. Just for fun, my prediction is below.
