Random Thoughts on Putin's Invasion...Round 4

We are approaching the two month mark of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  I have not posted anything for a while due to a combination of midterm related grading and, quite frankly, not knowing what to write.  Watching the war grind on and the images of continued suffering and atrocities have left me, in a sense, speechless.  But Good Friday, a time of sorrow anticipating a hopeful conclusion, seems like a good day to stop and take stock of what has been happening.

#1-To start with a positive development, I was wrong, along with many others, in assuming that it was only a matter of time before Russia took Kyiv.  Through a combination of the Ukrainian military’s ingenuity and the Russian military’s corrupt incompetence, the Ukrainians have not only held out but have retaken lost territory.  Russia has been forced to pull back and alter its initial invasion goals.  It seems poised to launch a renewed offensive in the Eastern part of Ukraine.  It is now not unlikely that Ukraine could repel this offensive.  The sinking of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva is a symbol of optimism for Ukraine, even if it sank because of an accident as opposed to a Ukrainian missile strike.  A defeat of this Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine would likely bring an end to this conflict with Ukraine emerging much stronger.

#2-Speaking of switching goals, the talking point that this was Putin’s plan all along is ludicrous.  The narrative is something along the lines that the military action in other parts of Ukraine was simply a distraction and Putin really just wanted Eastern Ukraine all along.  A few days after the invasion, an op-ed on a Russian website was mistakenly published (I believe I wrote about this in a previous post).  The op-ed assumed that Russia had “won” in just a few days and the government in Ukraine had been replaced and Russia was on its way of “denazifying” Ukraine.  This was clearly the goal from the beginning.  To suggest that Putin didn’t miscalculate is offensive to the efforts of Ukraine to force Putin to change his goals and dangerous, in that it continues to hold up Putin as some four-dimensional chess mastermind.  Many in Russia have long wanted the West not to discuss Putin like this, suggesting he is a brilliant, powerful tactician.  Not only is it wrong but it strengthens Putin’s grasp inside Russia.

#3-Putin has been taking efforts to further strengthen that grasp and Russia seems to be in the midst of a Stalinesque purge.  Putin has especially focused on the FSB intelligence agency, blaming them for what’s gone wrong in Ukraine (this is also a sign that Putin miscalculated, disproving the talking point above).  In addition, Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, has been missing from public life and has apparently suffered a heart attack, with some speculation that it was not from natural causes.  Part of all of this is Putin blaming others in government for his failures, a time honored tradition in authoritarian governments (all governments really).  But it also serves the purpose of eliminating potential threats to Putin’s rule.

#4-Another thing I was wrong, or appear wrong about, is the level of support for the invasion inside Russia.  Polls inside Russia, some from respected groups like the Levada Center, show strong majority support for Putin’s invasion.  But there are some caveats to this support as well.  Some of the support is a natural “rally around the flag” response to the level of international outrage.  Some of it is fear based, with laws passed that now make it criminal to speak out against the war.  But the thing I did not expect is the success of the Russian government’s internal propaganda campaign.  In the first few weeks of the invasion Russia was relatively silent about what was happening.  But as it became apparent the war was going to take longer than they expected, the propaganda machine was ramped up to full power.  The television stations cut out most regular programming and essentially became all war all the time.  The success is evident in two specific areas.  First, the popularity of the “Z” symbol in Russia.  Some of this is manufactured but the “Z” really does seem to be catching on as a symbol of support for the invasion and for Russia as a country.  Second, and even more mind boggling, is the number of stories of Ukrainians talking to relatives in Russia and the Russian relatives not believing what their Ukrainian family members are telling them.  Ukrainians telling them they are being bombed or Russians are killing people and being met with responses along the lines of “That’s not really happening.  Russian news says that’s not happening” or “Those are Ukrainians dressed up as Russians.  Russians wouldn’t do that.”  I’m not sure why I was surprised by this but I was.  The lengths humans will go in order to admit they are not wrong is amazing and terrifying.

#5-The atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol and countless other Ukrainian towns and cities are appalling.  The war has demonstrated the ability of a nuclear armed country to get away with war crimes because of the inability and unwillingness of the rest of the world to stop it.  This is one of the most difficult problems in international relations.  All of the sanctions in the world will not stop Russian war crimes.  The only thing that will stop it is military intervention.  But that carries its own risks and could potentially make it worse (I suppose the only way it can get worse is nuclear weapons).  What it all means is that the international community, if it is unwilling to use force, watches these war crimes occur without being able to stop them.  And Ukrainians suffer and wonder why other countries only speak loudly while carrying a small stick.  I don’t know the solution.  This is the problem that first captured my interest as an undergraduate political science student and led me to study international relations.  Like many things there is not a perfect solution, just a lot of imperfect actions with uncertain consequences.

#6-One thing that does seem like an obvious action is to stop buying Russian oil and natural gas.  Some countries have already done that.  Other countries like India have started to buy more Russian oil.  But India’s oil purchases are not really consequential, even if they may be immoral.  The real culprits are the European countries, like Germany, who are still buying Russian oil.  Germany imports far more oil from Russia than India and it accounts for about 40% of Germany’s oil imports.  While countries like India and China should be pressured to decrease (or stop altogether) their Russian energy purchases, European countries that have not already done so need to lead the way.

#7-The next few weeks/months in Europe will be important in whether they will stay united against Russia.  Sweden and Finland are likely to request to join NATO.  There will have to be approval from Russia friendly countries, such as Hungary who just re-elected Viktor Orban.  Part of Orban’s campaign included stoking fears that Hungarians could be sent to war in Ukraine to fight Russia.  After being re-elected with a significant majority, Orban could pose a threat to European unity against Russia.  Similarly in France, the final round of presidential elections on April 25th could be crucial.  Current president Emmanuel Macron is running against Marine Le Pen.  Le Pen is an Orban like figure and she is likely to be more friendly to Russia than Macron has been.  With Le Pen as president of France, a united EU or NATO response to Russia would become more difficult.  With all of that said, Putin’s invasion has clearly brought Europe closer together and awakened countries like Finland and Sweden to the advantages of mutual defense against Russian aggression.