Random thoughts on Putin's invasion-Round 3

Here is another round of random thoughts, with a slight focus on Putin’s decision, as Putin’s war continues.

1-As someone who studies this part of the world, a question I’ve asked myself since the invasion is how I missed this.  I’ve been comforted that I’m not the only one.  One of my favorite “Russia watchers”, Kevin Rothrock, posted the meme above, which is how I felt as well.  At first I was persuaded by the idea that Putin had fundamentally changed and had maybe even gone a little mad.  His public appearances seemed to confirm these suspicions.  But the more I’ve read and thought about it I think this is too simplistic.  Two twitter threads, one by post-Soviet Russia’s first foreign minister and one by Alexander Gabuev, sum up how I’ve come to think about Putin’s decision.

2-In short, Putin always saw Ukraine as rightfully part of Russia,  he frequently engaged in risky, international law violating behavior and the last several years (aided by the pandemic) has grown more isolated in his power and decision-making.  This greater isolation allowed Putin greater freedom to pursue ideas and actions that he already held without being challenged by others in the government.  The fact that so few people in the Russian government and military actually knew about it only reinforces the isolated nature of the decision.  The isolation of Putin also resulted in making a decision with bad information.  As more information has come out, it seems that Putin really did believe Zelensky was illegitimate and the Ukrainians would welcome his removal.  Putin’s prior beliefs, combined with a poor decision-making process resulting from increasing isolation and a history of “getting away” with bad behavior I think offers the best explanation for his decision to invade Ukraine.

3-Thinking about this past history of bad behavior indicates that the decision to invade is not a drastic change in Putin’s behavior. The following is not a comprehensive list but only some of the key actions Putin has taken that violate international law.  Indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas in Chechnya during the 2nd Chechen War, assassination of journalists in Russia during Putin’s time in office, assassination of dissidents abroad during Putin’s time in office, assassination and attempted assassination of political opponents in Russia, war crimes, including targeting hospitals, aid convoys and using chemical weapons, in Syria, violating the territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine, interfering in a variety of elections, including poisoning a Ukrainian presidential candidate in 2004 and cyber attacks against Estonia.  Looking back on all that he has done, it shouldn’t be surprising that Putin ultimately decided to invade.

4-The war continues to grind on, with Russia making small gains and increasing its bombing of civilian areas in Ukraine.  Although there does appear to be some momentum on the Russian side, they have lost several high ranking officers and are calling for reinforcements in the form of fighters from Syria and Central African Republic.  This is hopefully an indicator of how desperate Russia is but could also indicate a plan to increase the brutality of the fighting even more.

5-Putin has also begun to rally support for his war inside of Russia.  In addition to the harsh crackdowns on media and speech, Russian TV and other media have begun discussing the conflict and offering justifications for Russia’s attack.  This signals a change from the first few days of the war, when Russian media acted as if nothing was happening.  It is a somewhat risky step for Putin to increase coverage of the war.  He has been forced into it because things did not go as quickly as desired and because the sanctions have hit everyday Russians.  But discussing it more makes more people aware of it and may lead to people seeking out more information.  Eventually, the dissonance between the reality on the ground and the propaganda will become too much for many people.

6-Some (all) of the justifications provided on state media are absurd but also scary.  Perhaps the most troubling are claims that Ukraine and the U.S. were working together to develop some type of biological or chemical weapon to attack Russia, and thus Putin had no choice but to invade Ukraine. Russia’s UN Ambassador provided an extreme version of this claim today, suggesting a plot by the U.S. and Ukraine to spread a biological agent using birds!  The concern is that Putin is laying the groundwork to use chemical weapons in Ukraine, or to attack chemical storage facilities in Ukraine.  Either of which would result in disastrous consequences.  Putin used a similar playbook in Syria of accusing the other side of doing something that he planned to do himself.  Let’s pray it is just Russian media trying every excuse they can think of in their attempt to justify an unjustifiable war.

7-I have discussed the potential ramifications of the war for Russia but there are a number of other countries that could be affected by the war as well.  Syria is seemingly sending some troops to fight for the Russians, which could weaken Bashar Al-Assad’s position in Syria.  The struggles of the Russian military in Ukraine may also mean there is less support for Russia to stay militarily engaged in Syria, again weakening Assad.  The same is true for Chechnya, which is not a country but a region in southern Russia that often wants to break away from Russia.  Chechen fighters have already been sent to Ukraine and have not fared well.  This certainly weakens Ramzan Kadyrov’s position as the head of Chechnya.  Perhaps the largest impact may be the expected increase in grain prices on neighboring Central Asian countries.  These countries import a lot of their grain from Russia and if the price goes up, this could cause trouble for the leaders of these countries.  There is a very strong correlation between rises in food prices and protests/instability in authoritarian countries.  The Central Asian countries will be affected more broadly by the economic downturn in Russia.  They rely a great deal on seasonal workers and permanent workers who are employed in Russia and send money back to families in their home country.  These opportunities will not be as plentiful as Russia’s economy continues to tumble, as the World Bank data from March 4 below indicates.  Unrest in countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan would not be surprising.

8-Finally, although defections among elites continue and more people are leaving Russia, I don’t think there is much truth in the rumors that Putin’s inner circle or oligarchs are plotting his removal.  He seems to be getting some pushback but not enough at the moment that would suggest he is facing danger of removal.  Having said that, it becomes harder and harder to envision a way that Putin can emerge from this in a stronger position than before it and harder to see what his exit strategy is, other than “winning” the war.  China does not appear to be willing to help Russia much and there is nowhere else Russia can turn to for economic assistance on the scale they will require.  All of this means Putin’s incentives to pursue the maximalist aims of the invasion, so he can justify the invasion by pointing to some tangible “victories”.

If you have questions or topics you’d like me to address, please feel free to put them in the comments section. I will either respond to them in the comments or include them in future posts. Thanks for reading.