Quick recap of this week's main stories
A lot has happened this week and much of it relates back to news items we have discussed over the last several weeks. Instead of going into depth on any one of them, we’ll just go through a quick recap of each.
There is more information and action about Russian intelligence and propaganda activity inside the U.S. First off, the Biden administration announced that Russia Today (RT) has become fully embedded in Russia’s intelligence agencies. They take part in “covert influence and information activities” and possess “cyber capabilities”. RT helps Russian intelligence agencies both collect information and spread propaganda. As was discussed in last week’s post, two of their employees paid Tenet Media to post stories on their website.
Last week I mentioned that while much of the Russian influence operation is targeted on the far-right, it targets any group that is critical of America and the West. This week, four people, who were members of various Black rights groups, were convicted in Tampa, FL of acting as foreign agents of a foreign government. They received money from two FSB (the Russian version of the CIA and FBI combined) agents to spread pro-Russia views on the war in Ukraine and general anti-U.S. and anti-globalization views. For example, they drafted a petition for the UN accusing the U.S. of committing genocide against African people. They also tried to influence the outcome of local elections, such as the mayoral election in St. Petersburg, FL. The stories over the last few months have brought attention to the problem of Russian influence and, as I said last week, I fear more revelations will come.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently in Washington, DC to meet with President Biden. Among other things, they are discussing whether to allow Ukraine to use Western provided missiles on targets deep in Russian territory. As of now, a decision has not been announced. This follows a recognizable pattern throughout the war. Ukraine asks for something, the West equivocates, Russia threatens escalation, the West equivocates some more, Ukraine continues to push, and Russia continues to do bad things, eventually the West meets the Ukrainian request and Russia does not escalate.
Putin fulfilled his part in this drama by suggesting if the West allowed Ukraine to strike deep inside of Russia, then NATO would essentially be at war with Russia and be legitimate targets. However, Putin has been saying, since the initial invasion failed and he needed an excuse, that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine. According to his rhetoric nothing will change. We will see what happens, but Putin’s threats of escalation in the past have all turned out to be empty rhetoric. Every one of the red lines he has laid down has been crossed without any change in his behavior. I think this is for two reasons. One, it’s hard to escalate from full invasion of another country and daily war crimes. Two, Putin knows he will not win a war against NATO. Politically, he must talk tough and blame NATO, but a war with NATO would mean his government ends.
We will see what happens with this decision, but if it follows previous decisions, the U.S. and UK will give permission to Ukraine and Russia will complain but not drastically change their behavior.
Speaking of daily war crimes, this week Russia attacked a Red Cross truck in eastern Ukraine, killing three Red Cross workers. The Russian strike was targeting the site of a planned aid distribution in the region. It is a clear violation of international humanitarian law to kill aid workers and to disrupt the distribution of humanitarian aid.
Russia also attacked a Turkish ship carrying grain in the Black Sea. The ship was carrying grain from Ukraine to Egypt. This would seem like a non-military target. Russia has consistently tried to disrupt Ukrainian grain production and sales. It has a two-fold benefit for Russia. It reduces the money coming into Ukraine and it creates problems outside Ukraine. Food prices go up and there are food shortages as the amount of grain hitting the global market decreases. Russia can blame Ukraine and the West for this. Putin’s government consistently demonstrates that have no regard for human life, Russian or otherwise.
The other part of the attack on the ship though is that the ship was a Turkish registered ship. Earlier in the week, Turkey’s president Erdogan said that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine for a just ending to the war to occur. Turkey has tried to remain relatively neutral in this conflict. They have an economic relationship with Russia but also with Europe. They are in NATO, and they are the entry point into the Black Sea, so their location makes them an important player in the conflict. Erodgan’s statement is pretty surprising. Erdogan had met with Putin earlier this year to discuss the possibility of Turkey hosting a peace summit to end the conflict. After that meeting, the Kremlin said Erdogan would not be a good mediator to end the conflict. If Turkey starts moving more to the Ukrainian side of this conflict, which is more likely as Russia attacks Turkish ships, that could be a positive thing for Ukraine.
Finally, turning to the frontlines, there has not been much movement of the lines of control either way. Russia has shown more interest in taking back territory in Kursk but there has been little movement on the ground. The territory they have recovered is territory that Ukrainian forces had not extensively prepared to defend...presumably because they did not intend to hold it. Russia has not yet forcefully gone at parts in Kursk where Ukrainian forces have dug in their defenses. Russia will likely need more forces to attempt such an attack.
Inside Ukraine, there is also little movement. Over the last few weeks, it looked like Russian forces were on the verge of a breakthrough around Pokrovsk (a key city in eastern Ukraine). However, their progress has slowed over the last several days. Zelensky, and Ukrainian officials, suggest that it is the result of the offensive into Russia’s Kursk region. Prior to the invasion of Kursk, Russian forces around Pokrovsk were firing 12 times more artillery rounds than Ukrainian artillery. After the invasion, that number has been reduced to 2.5 times more than Ukraine. Perhaps Russia’s reallocation of resources to Kursk has benefitted Ukrainian forces inside of Ukraine.