Every parent knows that if you let kids get away with bad behavior it won’t go away but will continue to escalate. You may have an excuse not to deal with it, you may want to ignore it and hope it goes away but if it’s not dealt with it becomes a problem down the road. The same is true in politics. There are numerous recent examples that demonstrate, if bad behavior is excused it only escalates and becomes more problematic...here’s my case.
#1-Let’s start with the most recent, Lukashenko’s continued repression in Belarus. Yesterday, Lukashenko and his government faked a bomb threat on a commercial flight heading from Athens to Vilnius and deployed a fighter jet to escort it to Minsk so they could arrest an opposition journalist and his girlfriend who was on board. The action represents an escalation in Lukashenko’s tactics and a major violation of international law. But it is the unfortunate product of months of increasing repression by Lukashenko, including the abduction of a protester in broad daylight and torture of prisoners. As the Amnesty International report suggests, the violence of the Lukashenko regime has intensified because of the lack of a strong international response. The international response has been was it always is, sanctions, which are simply not good enough.
#2-Trump’s repeated lies about the 2020 election. After Trump lost the election last year he repeatedly lied about the amount of fraud and said that he really won. Most, not all, Republicans went along with it knowing it was false but thinking that it would take care of itself and not have any major consequences. In the infamous words of the anonymous GOP official, “What’s the downside of humoring him”? Well, here are three quick downsides. First, the events of January 6th. A mob attempting to violently stop the democratic electoral process is a large downside. Second, letting the lies linger has led to increased numbers of Republicans, about 65%, saying the election was stolen. Finally, Trump keeps lying about the election and Republicans have to parrot the lies or else face the fate of Liz Cheney. Some Republicans came out against it, but the leaders of the party either chose to ignore it, like Mitch McConnell, or continue to discuss how important Trump is to the party, like Kevin McCarthy. Republicans may think that they are using Trump to gain support for the 2022 midterm elections but there will undoubtedly be further negative consequences by letting the lie fester.
#3-Aung San Suu Kyi’s refusal to speak out against human rights atrocities in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for her courageous stand against the military government in Burma. She was under house arrest for 15 years and faced her share of hardship at the hands of the military government. As Burma began to liberalize and elections were held, her party won the majority of seats in parliament in 2015 and although by law she was unable to be the official leader of the country, she was the de facto leader. In 2017 the military began a brutal campaign against the Rohingya minority population in Western Burma. There is no doubt that the goal is to eliminate the Rohingya people, as the military and government won’t even acknowledge they exist as a people. Many hoped that Aung San Suu Kyi would speak out against the atrocities but she also refused to say their name and defended the government against accusations of atrocities and genocide. After elections earlier this year were disputed by the losing side the military launched a coup and took control of the government. The coup led to protests, which the military has used deadly force to control, killing over 700 people. It would appear that Ms. Suu Kyi has again been detained and charged with false crimes. Her calculation to dismiss the atrocities committed by the military against the Rohingyas so she could stay in power, even if it was well intended, only excused bad behavior that escalated to a coup.
#4-Finally, there is the case of China and the genocide against the Uighurs. I wrote about this a few months ago so won’t go into great detail here. But China has been committing genocide against the Uighurs for a while now. There have been public denunciations and strongly worded diplomatic statements but no real action. This follows a number of behaviors that China has been allowed to get away with, such as violating international law in the South China Sea or their mistreatment of migrant workers or their spying on their own citizens and using Chinese citizens abroad as surveillance. The list could go on and on. Most recently, China’s behavior related to the COVID-19 crisis has been unacceptable. Early on China attempted to shift blame, refused a full investigation likely resulting in the loss of lives around the world, has tried to prevent Taiwan from using WHO resources and could possibly be covering up that the virus did escape from the lab and did not occur naturally. If China is allowed to get away with these things, in addition to their genocide of the Uighurs and flouting of international law, what’s to stop them from escalating their behavior?
Based on the evidence it seems clear that bad behavior of governments and leaders can’t be ignored or rationalized away. If it is not fully addressed it only escalates and often results in violence and more serious dilemmas. Republicans have another opportunity to address bad behavior with the creation of a legitimate January 6th commission. The Democrats have an opportunity by Andrew Cuomo’s disinformation about COVID in New York and his sexual harassment. The European Union, NATO and the U.S. face another chance to address behavior before it further escalates. What Lukashenko did yesterday cannot be allowed. If the EU and U.S. decide on more sanctions then Lukashenko will get a green light to continue his repression. If all flights to Belarus are stopped, or Belarusian diplomats are expelled from European capitals then it will signal that the international community is finally serious about addressing at least one leader’s bad behavior.
Campaign Ads
This Lukashenko campaign ad from 2020 does not have subtitles but it’s pretty easy to figure out the message from the start. Re-elect Lukashenko and you can avoid the civil unrest of the other former-Soviet countries.