Now is not the time to let up on Russia
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the continued domestic economic struggles and increased (albeit short-term) U.S. support for Ukraine are all bad news for Russia. Their hope is that once Trump is in office he will push Ukraine to a cease-fire, thus saving Russia from their growing problems. It should come as no surprise that I think that’s a mistake. Here’s my case for why now is not the time to let up on Russia.
1-It turns out that increasing pressure on Russia works. The data above demonstrates guided bomb attacks against Ukraine since May of this year. The decrease over the last few weeks has puzzled many. There are several possible explanations. It may be that Russia is saving up its stock for a major attack or for attacks on energy infrastructure during winter. But it is likely that the combination of greater use of F-16s by Ukraine and the permission to use U.S. missiles inside of Russia make it more difficult for Russia to use guided bombs. If the latter explanation is accurate, the lesson is providing Ukraine with greater capabilities reduces Russian aggression. It does not lead to Russian escalation as so many fear.
2-Assad's collapse in Syria is a blow to Russia. Last week we mentioned the growing rebellion against Assad, and he fled the country within the next 24 hours. Assad ended up in Moscow, which is fitting because Russia had propped up Assad for so many years. Russia, and Putin personally, invested a lot of resources making sure that Assad stayed in power during the civil war sparked by the Arab Spring. Russia committed several military resources and engaged in carpet bombings of Syrian cities, committing war crimes along the way. Assad’s rapid fall demonstrates Russia’s inability or unwillingness to help him stay in power in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Russia’s military capabilities are severely diminished and now is not the time to let up.
3-Russia's economy is still struggling a great deal. I have written about this for several weeks but there are no signs that Russia’s economy will improve in the near future. Attempting to head off inflation and keep the currency stable, the central bank has raised interest rates to over 20%. They need a strong currency because they are so reliant on imports from places such as China and Iran...not to mention the imports they are still getting from countries with sanctions on them. This is not a stable situation. Now is not the time for countries to discuss the possibility of relaxing sanctions to get Russia to the negotiating table. That is throwing a lifeline to Putin. If anything, the economic pressure on Russia needs to be ramped up. Tightening up existing sanctions and implementing secondary sanctions on those countries helping Russia to bypass primary sanctions would be ideal.
I feel as if I’ve said this several times, or at least thought it, that we are at a pivotal moment. Both Ukraine and Russia are weakened with questions about how much longer they can continue. The momentum in the U.S. and parts of Russia seems to be to pressure Ukraine to the negotiating table. The incoming Trump administration is unreliable in their support of Ukraine, and you can imagine a situation where the U.S. pulls support away from Ukraine at precisely the wrong time. Instead, increasing support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia may be the best policy. This does not appear to lead to escalation but predictably results in less Russian aggression. If people truly want a cease-fire, don’t pressure Ukraine to the table but instead, continue to weaken Russia so it is forced to the table.