Make America Europe Again
How the U.S. is becoming more like Europe
My apologies for the extended absence. With the end of the semester, and all of the grading that goes with it, I figured I should focus on my day job. But that’s all done with, so I can focus on this thing some more, and hopefully get back to two posts a week.
For a long time, many on the left in the U.S. have wanted the U.S. to become more like Europe and many on the right have warned against this. For better or worse, the U.S. is slowly becoming more like Europe...here’s my case.
#1-Demographically the U.S. is beginning to look more like Europe. There are two demographic trends in the U.S. that are bringing it more in line with Europe. First, the U.S. is becoming less religious. Gallup recently published the graphic below, indicating that for the first time since they’ve kept track fewer than 50% of Americans are members of a church. This is part of a longer and broader trend, typified by the so-called religious “nones”. “Nones” are those people who claim no religious affiliation whatsoever. They are not all atheists/agnostics but the majority are simply indifferent toward religion. In 2019, the “nones” became the single largest religious group in the country at 23.1%, barely edging out evangelicals. Christians in general still represent the largest religious group in the country, and the U.S. is still much more religious on whole than most European countries. However, the trend is a fast increasing non-religious group of people. The second trend is a slowing in population growth. The 2020 census revealed the slowest growth rate since the 1930s, at 7.4%. Again, this is still much higher than the EU average, which is less than 1%, but the trend is downward. The U.S. has always stood apart from other advanced economies by maintaining both high levels of religiosity and high population growth. While the U.S. still is higher in those categories than the average EU country, the gap is much less than it was just 10 years ago.
#2-Politically, the U.S. is looking more like Europe as well. Again, there are two trends leading the U.S. to be more like Europe. First the U.S. left is moving further left, both socially and economically. In a 2020 poll, 88% of Democrats said the government is responsible for individuals’ health care, with 54% wanting single payer health care. A 2021 poll found 72% of Democrats favored legalization of recreational marijuana use and 23% for medical use. According to a 2020 poll, 83% of Democrats favor tuition-free college. I could provide more examples but the larger picture points to Democrats increasingly favoring a larger welfare state similar to the European model. The second trend is that the U.S. right is looking more like the European right in, again, two ways. First, the U.S. right also increasingly favors a larger welfare state, similar to the European right. A prime example of this is Senator Hawley’s child tax credit proposal that would pay married couples with kids $1000 a month. A Republican senator is essentially proposing a universal basic income for families. In December, then President Trump called for a $2000 COVID payment, after Republicans and Democrats had negotiated a smaller amount. Republicans, over the last four years, have generally favored increased spending with arguments for fiscal conservatism decreasing. The second way the U.S. right resembles the European right is the focus on nationalism and ethnicity. Steve Bannon wanted the U.S. to become more nationalist and less liberal/pluralistic. This battle between a more pluralistic, classically liberal right and a more nationalist, stronger government right is best seen in the debate between David French and Sohrab Ahmari. At least for now, it would seem that the part of the right favoring more ethnic nationalism has won. Trump still has a hold over the party, and while traditional conservatives such as Liz Cheney are punished by the party, those like Paul Gosar who speak to white nationalist rallies are left alone. The U.S. right looks much more like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in France than they do Reagan or Bush’s party.
#3-U.S. foreign policy is playing less of a role in the world, similar to traditional European foreign policy. Trump’s “America first” doctrine is the best example of the U.S. turning its focus inward but he is hardly the only politician to call for less of a U.S. role. Obama’s “leading from behind” strategy intended a quieter role for the U.S., while still pulling U.S. commitments back. All of the major presidential candidates in 2016 came out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, which despite the strong rhetoric against China gave China a golden opportunity to guide the future of trade in Asia while sidelining the U.S. The U.S. was largely absent from the Syrian peace talks. In issue after issue the U.S. has ceded international action to other countries, which may be good or bad, but is different from U.S. foreign policy in the past.
Based on the evidence it appears that the U.S. is becoming more like Europe demographically and politically. The country is becoming more secular and growing more slowly. The left is more openly embracing the large welfare state while the right seems less concerned with limited government and more concerned with ethno-nationalism. The U.S. is even becoming more interested in soccer, a sure sign of becoming closer to Europe. There are some good and bad effects associated with these changes but the changing demographics will obviously change politics inside the U.S. It is worth looking to Europe to see how what kind of politics may result from these changes.
Campaign Ads
Speaking of Europe, here’s a fun campaign ad for the Conservatives in the UK.