It's getting better all the time...
2020 was a rough year and 2021 promises to have its struggles as well. Taking a step back to gain some perspective can help remind ourselves that, despite the last year, the world has been materially improving for a while...here’s my case.
#1-There are fewer people in poverty than ever. One of the least told stories, at least outside of a few economic circles, is that poverty has been declining for a while and in the last 50 years millions and millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. The first chart below looks at the years from 1981-2015 and the second looks at estimates extended to 2030. What the charts suggest is that poverty has decreased substantially when looking at the world as a whole. It has also decreased in most of the world’s regions, especially in East Asia, South Asia and Latin America. Sub-Saharan Africa is really the only place that has not seen decreases in poverty levels. The important point is not that people have more money but that the money allows for a better quality of life, greater health and greater opportunities. I’m not a fan of Ted Talks but if you have 20 minutes watch this one by Hans Roling to get a broader concept of poverty and why getting this many millions of people out of poverty is good for the world.
#2-People are healthier than they ever have been. The maps below show clearly that life expectancy from 1950 to 2015 has increased dramatically, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. As you might expect, a decrease in child mortality has also followed the increase in life expectancy. And as you also might expect, vaccinations have resulted in a tremendous decline in the spread of disease (such as polio, measles and tetanus) around the world.
#3-The number of wars and deaths from war have decreased. The number of wars increased during the “Cold War” era but since 1990 they have steadily declined. Deaths related to battle have been a little more erratic but follow a similar trend with a few notable spikes, such as the recent one largely due to the war in Syria. Although there are a number of notable conflicts around the world, the world is in general a more peaceful place than it has been.
#4-In the U.S. crime has steadily declined. Here we have yet another example of the public assuming one thing when the data tells us something else. In most of the years between 1993 and 2016 over 50% believed that crime was worse than a year ago but the reality as indicated on the other side of the graph shows that crime had been decreasing. The second graph shows the extent of the decline in violent crimes and property crimes. The data also shows that the number of terrorist attacks in the U.S. has declined a great deal since 1970. In the 1970s there were around 1500 attacks in the U.S. The Wall Street Journal also had a story about Christmas in the 1800s being dominated by violent street gangs busting into people’s houses and demanding presents. So even Christmas is safer now than it used to be.
Based on the evidence it is hard to argue with the conclusion that the world is getting better in a material sense. With respect to economics, health and safety (all basic measures of human security) things have improved tremendously in the last 100 years. Whether these material improvements have led to improvements in spiritual or psychological health is a different question but the next time you hear the world is getting worse at least there is some evidence to suggest that isn’t completely the case.
Campaign Ads
I was reading about Mike Gravel and the Gravel v. United States (1972) Supreme Court case this week and it reminded me of when he ran for president in 2008. This is one of the more unique campaign ads.