Several news events over the last few weeks have me thinking about worst-case scenarios. The muted reception of Zelensky’s “victory plan”, North Korean troops in Ukraine, Trump’s continued contacts with Putin, Ukraine losing ground in Kursk, Iran asking for Russian support in the event of an Israeli strike, increased Russian sabotage within Europe, Russia working to destabilize countries in Africa to create a new refugee crisis, and a closer connection between Russia and China.
So, I want to indulge this worst-case scenario thinking this week. As a result, this will be different than previous posts and if you don’t want to follow me down this depressing road, that is understandable. Skip this week and come back next week for a healthier balance of optimism and pessimism. But this week, we will embrace the pessimism.
The worst-case scenario (for the Ukraine-Russia conflict) begins with the election of Donald Trump in a few weeks. In the months before he takes office Trump signals that his administration will significantly reduce support for Ukraine and pressure them to sign a cease-fire. Russia continues to make advances in taking back its territory in Kursk and small gains in Ukraine. Once the Trump administration takes office, they make good on their promises. The result is Ukraine losing control of territory inside of Russia and Russia making larger advances inside of Ukraine. The combination of Ukrainian losses and declining American support result in some European countries, especially Germany and France, also decreasing support for Ukraine. Eventually, Ukraine is forced to sign an unfair cease-fire, with Russia controlling a large portion of Eastern Ukraine. The frozen conflict allows Russia to continue to have influence in Ukrainian politics, in the same way they influence Georgian politics and Ukraine is divided, both literally and symbolically.
The new Trump administration not only makes good on its promises to reduce support for Ukraine, but also on its promise to increase tariffs across the board. The increased tariffs reduce trade between the U.S. and key allies, such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea. Trump’s skepticism of international organizations, such as NATO, reemerges leading European and Asian allies (as well as foes) to question the commitment of the U.S. The combination of reduced economic interaction and hostile rhetoric toward diplomacy and alliances results in the U.S. becoming more isolationist and disengaging with the world.
Meanwhile, Russian efforts to destabilize Europe through sabotage and manufactured refugee crises are working, especially in Western Europe. Countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands, elect governments that are anti-immigrant, protectionist, and isolationist. The point to the costs of supporting Ukraine’s futile defense and the dangers of global political and economic ties. European countries such as the UK, Poland, Latvia and Estonia become the only ones still focused on the Russian threat to Europe and remain supportive of Ukraine.
Conflict continues in the Middle East without a clear resolution or escalation. Israel and Iran trade missile strikes back and forth. Gaza continues to be a place of conflict and Lebanon is unstable, with Iran fighting Israel through proxies.
The relationship between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran grows. China, North Korea, and Iran help Russia rebuild its stockpile of weapons. Russia provides relatively cheap oil and natural gas to these countries, which helps their economies allowing them to continue to develop their own military capabilities. As a result, Iran develops nuclear weapons further raising the stakes in the Middle East and their conflict with Israel.
Europe and the United States are continuing to look inward and suffer an economic crisis. The U.S. crisis is self-inflicted through high tariff rates and draconian immigration policies, which leads to increased prices and unemployment. Europe’s results from declining trade with the U.S., higher energy prices because of Russia’s turn to Asia for its energy exports, and the instability caused by Russia’s sabotage and engineered refugee crisis.
While the U.S. and Europe are focused inward, a strengthened Russia renews its operations in Ukraine while beginning operations in Estonia. At first it follows the familiar, paramilitary strategy. Some group inside of Ukraine and Estonia claim they are representing the people there and wish to secede from the country and join Russia. But it quickly escalates into full-fledged conflict. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland immediately come to Ukraine and Estonia’s aid. Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia come to Russia’s aid. Western Europe debates invoking Article 5 of NATO, while the U.S. indicates they will not get involved.
Eventually Western Europe does get involved with the UK leading the way. But Serbia has moved into Kosovo and Bosnia, attempting to re-take land they lost in 1990s. This brings Croatia into conflict with Serbia and opens a second front in Europe. The Trump administration still stays on the sidelines.
Then the dominos fall. North Korea supports Russian war efforts and in exchange, Russia supports a North Korea offensive inside of South Korea, which has also been facing economic crisis because of reduced trade with the U.S. Japan comes to the defense of South Korea and, the U.S. still doesn’t get involved.
With the U.S. disinterested, Japan occupied in South Korea and Europe engulfed in war, China takes the opportunity to invade Taiwan. Japan and South Korea offer whatever assistance they can to Taiwan, while China aids North Korea, as well as providing continued aid to Russia.
At some point through all of this, the conflict between Israel and Iran ignites into all-out war, which brings in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. And thus, we have a world war which, like the two in the 20th century, results in tremendous loss of life, refugee crises, economic depression and disruption. Eventually the U.S. does get involved, because it always eventually gets involved. Maybe it happens after Trump leaves office or because there is too much global pressure to get involved. However it happens, the U.S. becomes involved on all fronts.
As I said, this is a worst-case scenario. It mostly sounds like a bad pitch for a movie or novel, and it is unlikely to occur, but it is not impossible. Hopefully next week we can balance this out, imagining what a best-case scenario would entail.