Cease-fire in Ukraine?

Cease-Fire Talks in Ukraine: A Growing Discussion

A lot has happened in the past two weeks, but one topic stands out: momentum seems to be building around possible cease-fire agreements to halt the fighting in Ukraine. Let’s unpack why this is gaining traction and what the potential outcomes might look like.

Why Now?

There are two primary reasons for the increased discussion.

1. Mounting Struggles on Both Sides
   Both Ukraine and Russia are grappling with significant challenges. Ukraine faces recruitment shortages and minor territorial losses at the front line, compounded by the long-term strain on its economy. Russia is experiencing similar pressures. Recruitment efforts have faltered, and its economy is on shaky ground. Escalating costs and limited gains from the war are putting additional strain on Putin's government. These human and economic realities are pushing both sides toward the negotiating table.

2. Waning External Support
   International backing for Ukraine is not as robust as it once was. The election of Donald Trump has introduced uncertainty about continued U.S. aid. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, while pledging more assistance during a visit to Kyiv, has sent mixed signals, perhaps influenced by domestic political pressures. In Romania, political turmoil has also shaken support for Ukraine. A recent presidential election saw a pro-Russian candidate, Calin Georgescu, win the most votes before the result was annulled due to allegations of external interference. With countries like Slovakia and Romania wavering, Ukraine may feel compelled to negotiate sooner rather than later.

Possible Cease-Fire Scenarios

Zelensky has proposed a cease-fire deal that includes NATO membership for Ukraine while allowing Russia to retain control of occupied territories temporarily, with future negotiations over their return. This marks a significant shift from his earlier stance that all occupied land must be returned to Ukraine.

Zelensky’s proposal reflects Ukraine’s current military realities and tests the West’s commitment to supporting its NATO ambitions. However, divisions within NATO make this proposal unlikely to succeed.

Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration reportedly has three plans under consideration:

• J.D. Vance’s Plan: Establish a demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia.

• Ric Grenell’s Plan: Create “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine.

• Keith Kellogg’s Plan: Freeze the conflict along current battle lines, relying on future diplomacy for a longer-term settlement.

Both Vance’s and Grenell’s plans involve territorial concessions without NATO membership for Ukraine, a scenario that favors Russia but undermines Ukraine’s security. Kellogg’s approach seems closest to Zelensky’s vision but lacks detailed guarantees of security for Ukraine.

The Long-Term Challenge

Any agreement must address a critical issue: deterring Russia from future aggression. The Minsk agreements, signed after Russia’s 2014 invasion, provided weak security guarantees that proved ineffective. Without strong, credible guarantees—such as those offered by NATO—any cease-fire risks being a temporary pause, with the conflict reigniting in a few years.

Other Key Developments

While Ukraine dominates headlines, there are significant developments elsewhere:

• Syria: Fighting has reignited as the Free Syrian Army captured Aleppo, Hama, and possibly Homs, dividing Syrian government forces. Russia and Iran, stretched thin by the war in Ukraine, are unlikely to provide substantial support to Assad’s regime. If Assad falls, it would be a significant blow to Russia’s influence in the region.

• Georgia: Protests continue after disputed elections and promising to delay EU membership talks. The pro-Russian government faces growing unrest reminiscent of Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan revolution. While Russia may want to intervene, its resources are too stretched to launch another military operation.

Final Thoughts

The war in Ukraine remains a complex, evolving situation. Cease-fire talks signal a desire to end the conflict, but without robust guarantees, any resolution risks being short-lived. Meanwhile, Russia's strained resources and the shifting dynamics in Syria and Georgia highlight the broader consequences of its war in Ukraine.