Back in the USSR: Putin visits North Korea
This week’s submission will be fairly short and straightforward. Putin visited North Korea, the U.S. again changed their restrictions on Ukrainian use of weapons and Russia’s offensive has stalled.
Situation in Ukraine and Russia
Putin’s visit to North Korea led to some very funny images. In some ways, it appeared that Putin was cosplaying as a Stalinesque leader. Perhaps he is hoping his future in Russia looks like Kim Jong Un’s present in North Korea. The pageantry, adoring crowds, hollow symbols of power...all of these are probably appealing to Putin.
But behind the parades and pomp, Putin’s visit is evidence of his weak position. After not getting everything he needed on his recent visit to China, Putin had to go to North Korea to beg for weapons and assistance. North Korea, a tiny, impoverished, isolated nation is Putin’s best hope. Nothing illustrates Russia’s decline globally as well as this. Ukraine gets weapons and support from the U.S., the UK, the EU, Japan, South Korea and so on. Putin has North Korea and Iran.
No matter the result of the war, Putin’s invasion has seriously weakened Russia’s geopolitical situation. There is no amount of spin or doublespeak from the Kremlin or its supporters that can change this fact. NATO is larger and stronger, Ukraine has more Western allies (signing security agreements with several countries), Europe is buying more energy from the U.S. and less from Russia. Meanwhile, not only does Russia have to beg North Korea for weapons and assistance, but they have also lost influence in Central Asia.
The agreement between Russia and North Korea will result in military aid for Russia while Russia will provide technical and nuclear assistance to North Korea. They did not quite sign a mutual defense pact but did sign a mutual assistance pact. Increased Russian support for North Korea obviously affects South Korea and Japan. South Korea has so far only supplied humanitarian assistance and non-lethal aid to Ukraine. However, after the Russia/North Korea agreement, South Korea has come out and said they will consider sending military weapons to Ukraine. So, Ukraine will likely pick up more assistance because of Russia’s efforts.
The U.S. has now said that Ukraine can use their weapons to strike anywhere inside of Russia anywhere its forces attack across the border. Previously, it was limited to the Kharkiv region, so this represents and expansion in U.S. policy. All things being equal, this should help Ukraine in its efforts to defend its territory. It is another example of the U.S., as well as other countries in the West, being cautious in their approach in this war. The support for Ukraine is somewhat incremental, which maybe allows for domestic audiences to build greater support for each step but delays how effective Ukraine can be on the battlefield.
The recent weapons provided by the U.S. in the aid passed by Congress, combined with the ability to strike in Kharkiv, has stalled the Russian offensive in northeast Ukraine. Russian forces are experiencing a massive number of casualties in the fighting. While the aid and permissions have come slowly, it may be that Ukraine has survived its darkest hour.