An important prisoner exchange

Apologies for missing last week’s submission; the week just got away from me. There is a lot to catch up, so this week will be a quick-fire run through some of the most noteworthy items from the last couple of weeks.  

Situation in Ukraine and Russia

#1-Late Wednesday night, early Thursday morning a prisoner exchange between Russia, the U.S., Germany and other countries was completed. In total, 16 political prisoners in Russia were released 8 Russians that were in custody in several western countries were released. The main takeaway is that this is great for the political prisoners that were being illegally held by Russia. The 16 included three Americans, several Russians, and a few Germans. 

Two American reporters, Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal and Alsu Kurmasheva of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty were released. Gershkovich was arrested in March of 2023 and on July 19 of this year was sentenced to 16 years in prison for espionage, a charge that he was clearly not guilty of. Kurmasheva, a Russian-American, was detained in October of 2023 for failing to register as a “foreign agent” under Russia’s unjust foreign agent law, even though she was just in Russia to deal with a family emergency and not on business with Radio Free Europe/Liberty. 

The other, well-known American released was Paul Whelan, who was arrested in December of 2018 and convicted of “espionage” in June of 2020. Whelan was a former Marine and police officer who was working as a director of global security for the company Borg Warner and worked often in Russia.  

Two prominent Russian political figures, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin were also released. Outside of Alexei Navalny, Kara-Murza is probably the best-known opposition figure and critic of Putin in the west. He has been involved in many opposition parties and movements, many connected to Boris Nemtsov, who was murdered in 2015. He formerly served in the Rusisan parliament and was very active in promoting human rights in Russia. He was poisoned in both 2015 and 2017 and was arrested in April of 2022 for spreading “false” information about the Russian military. Clearly a political conviction. 

Ilya Yashin started his career in youth political organizations and was eventually elected as a municipal deputy in Moscow. His politics are like Navalny’s, focusing on electoral success and exposing corruption. He was arrested in June of 2022 for also spreading “false” information about the Russian military. If Kara-Murza is the best known in the west, Yashin may be the one most likely to pick up the mantle of Navalny and become the face of the opposition inside of Russia.  

The full list of prisoners released is in the story linked above. It is great news that all of them are now free and will be reunited with their families and loved ones. These exchanges however do have a cost to them as well. First, the prisoners released to Russia committed actual crimes. Most were related to espionage or smuggling, but one prisoner Vadim Krasikov, assassinated a Chechen/Georgian soldier in Germany. Russia arrests people under false pretenses and exchanges them for actual criminals. The second cost is that this incentivizes Russia to take further “prisoners”, really hostages. Any American, Canadian, German, etc. inside of Russia, whether they have committed a crime or not, is vulnerable. There have been several exchanges, this is the most recent and largest, but I’m not sure how to discourage Russia’s hostage taking while also freeing the people unlawfully detained. It’s a tricky problem, but at the very least, 16 innocent people are now free and safe. 

There has already been some great reporting about the negotiations leading to the exchange and there will certainly be more in the future. One interesting question is why Putin did this. On paper, the “trade” seems somewhat imbalanced against Russia. Not only in numbers (16 vs 8) but also in the profile and importance of the prisoners. This is the type of trade that would be suspicious if it happened in the MLB or in someone’s fantasy football league. There is not good reporting on the Russian side of the deal but there do seem to be two viable explanations. 

First, perhaps this is Putin’s peace offering in anticipation of cease-fire talks. The prisoners exchanged do not matter so much as Putin attempting to earn goodwill from the west with the hopes of achieving more of his interests in a cease-fire agreement. If this is true, then it also indicates Putin is worried about the costs of the war in Ukraine and how long he can continue it. 

A second possible explanation is simply that the upcoming U.S. election creates uncertainty, and Putin is not sure if he will be able to get this deal after November. Not necessarily that Harris or Trump would be tougher or weaker, but simply that the change in personnel risked overturning many months of negotiations. Putin does have an interest in getting back intelligence officials that risk their lives for Russia. His pitch to future recruits is that Russia will not leave you behind, and this provides him evidence of that statement. It also gives him a “win” inside of Russia, when he doesn’t have many coming from Ukraine. So perhaps he worried the deal would fall apart and wanted to make sure it was completed. Either way, it is an interesting question and something that hopefully future reporting will provide more information about. 

Two, final quick things about the prisoner exchange. There are many, many political prisoners inside Russian jails. Gershkovich commented on this when he arrived back in the U.S. and the graphic above from Mediazona demonstrates it. Second, on a happier note, the images and videos of the joy and relief of the families are great. Whatever we think about American politics, the war in Ukraine, the morality of prisoner swaps, watching children get their mom back and parents getting their children back makes all of that other stuff seem very small. 

#2-This week Ukraine received its first shipment of F-16 planes, with just 6 planes in this initial batch. Ukraine has long asked for these planes to help counteract Russia’s missile and aerial attacks. The west equivocated because of the fear of escalation, but here we are two years into the war and they finally have the planes. Ukraine has been attacking Russian air defense sites over the last several weeks to create an environment where the F-16s can be most effective. Who knows just how much they will change the situation but they certainly can’t hurt. There is an alternative history to this war, where the west provide the appropriate materials to Ukraine, without restrictions on their use, early in the war and Ukraine has already won by now. Alas, we do not live in that timeline. 

#3-Hungary announced they would ease immigration rules for Russians and Belarussians. Long story short, it will be easier for citizens of Russia and Belarus to get a “national card” allowing them to work inside of Hungary. The national card allows easier access and travel to EU countries. This raises legitimate concerns about Russian espionage and sabotage inside of Europe, which I wrote about a few weeks ago. This action is also counter to existing EU policy, which Hungary is required to follow. Hungary’s actions about Russia have long flouted EU policies. As the story linked above discusses, it’s possible that Hungary’s status of visa-free travel in EU countries could be revoked, but I would go further and suggest that Hungary’s suspension from the EU completely should be considered. Orban often discusses the problems of the EU and how it holds Hungary back, so maybe they should give him what he wants and cut Hungary loose. 

#4-This one is more speculation than a news item, but there has been increasing discussion of whether Ukraine should begin negotiations of a cease-fire. This is not only coming from the usual suspects (Russia, far left and far right sources, Hungary) but also from Ukraine, including President Zelensky. Ukraine hosted a multi-country meeting to discuss peace in Ukraine in late June, and afterward said they wanted a second peace summit with Russia present. They are likely responding to three things. First, Ukrainian public opinion is more in favor of peace talks than at any other time. A poll in June showed that 44% of Ukrainians favored a cease-fire and 48% wanted to keep fighting. Second, while materials and weapons may be coming in from the west, Ukraine needs soldiers. It’s not quite as bad as some make out, and Russia does not have an infinite number of soldiers, but the reality of available soldiers is pressing in on Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine may be worried about continued support from the west. As I’ve discussed previously, the uncertainty of the U.S. election hangs over Ukraine, but also increasing pressure from European countries like Hungary, Slovenia and Serbia. Ukraine may feel like their best negotiating leverage is in the next several months before the U.S. election. Again, all of this is speculation, but I would not be surprised if there is increased talk of a cease-fire and perhaps even an agreement before the end of the year. 

Elections

In election news, Venezuela had presidential elections last weekend. Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded the previous president Hugo Chavez (who famously had himself elected president for life) declared himself the winner. Exit polls and common sense tell us that Maduro was clearly not the winner, and his opponent, Edmundo Gonzales, won and probably won by a lot. The photo above shows the made up numbers of the Venezuelan government that add up to about 132%. Chavez started Venezuela down the path of economic and political ruin and Maduro has continued it. It is understandable why Venezuelans want a change. 

What is relevant to us here is that Russia came out quickly and congratulated Maduro because this is how elections inside of Russia play out. Not only did Russia congratulate Maduro, but Orban’s Hungary did as well. Orban even blocked an EU resolution stating there were several irregularities in the elections.  

Maduro’s claim of victory has led to protests inside of Venezuela calling for him to step down. We will see what happens, but this is Putin’s worst nightmare. This is why Ukraine throwing out its own authoritarian leaders in 2004 and 2014 upset Putin so much, why Putin really invaded Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, why he helped Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan put now small protests about their elections. Putin, Orban, Erdogan and others all find common ground in fearing the legitimate results of elections of their own people. More than any ideology or opposition to the U.S. what unites them is fear of losing power. Keeping people like Maduro in power in obviously false circumstances strengthens Putin and others own positions at home, which is why they care about what happens in Venezuela. It should also be why the U.S. and the EU care about what happens in Venezuela.