America is in trouble
America is in trouble...here’s my case.
#1-America faces a Constitutional crisis. I discussed some of the unconstitutional actions Trump took on his first day...but there have been several more. Most egregiously is Elon Musk, a private citizen with no official government power, taking control of government spending. Congress may as well not exist. Trump’s plans to end departments, such as the US Agency for International Development (USAID), is also unconstitutional. The firing of civil servants without cause directly violates Congressional law, which is also unconstitutional. The list could go on and on.
The institutions of government are not self-enforcing. If the courts make a ruling, they rely on people following their decision. If a president violates a Congressional law, it is only remedied by an action of Congress or the courts. If a private citizen takes control of the federal bureaucracy, it is imperative that Congress (or a sane president) use their oversight power to stop it from occurring. What Musk and Trump have laid bare is that the ties that bind our Constitutional order together are thin and reliant on honorable public servants to keep them together. Unfortunately, we seem to have a scarcity of those at the moment.
#2-America faces an economic crisis. Trump’s repeated promises of tariffs throughout his campaign turned out to not be hot air. The man who many voted for to bring down prices seems intent on doing the exact opposite. The top three trading partners (in both imports and exports) of the U.S. are Canada, Mexico and China. On Saturday, February 1, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff increase on China. What will happen? One economic think tank estimated the cost per American household would be $1200. That seems low to me, and it probably is because it does not factor in retaliatory tariffs.
All three countries have announced that they plan to put into place tariffs on the U.S. The exports and imports from these countries represent around 40% of all U.S. trade. The U.S. simply does not have the capacity to make that up. There will be shortages, increases in prices, and jobs lost. In Trump’s first administration, when he put tariffs on steel, aluminum and washing machines...the costs of all three went up and there were shortages. Trump has also discussed tariffs related to the European Union. If that occurs, we are looking at a depression-era level economic meltdown. Just look at how the stock exchange reacted to Trump’s threats on Friday.
Adding to Trump’s trade war, which the Wall Street Journal declared the “dumbest trade war in history”, is the crackdown on illegal immigrants. This will cause a labor shortage in crucial industries, such as construction and agriculture, that will also be hit by the tariffs. This will add to the shortages. Construction projects will go unfinished, waiting times for appliances and repairs will dramatically increase, and supply and choice at the grocery store will be diminished.
The third part of our looming economic crisis is the pause in government spending for programs funded by the NIH, CDC, NSF, USAID and so on. All of these grants have jobs connected to them and, if and when the funding is stopped, these jobs will likely disappear. There is simply no logic to the scale of all of these actions and there is very little economic sense. It helps you understand how Trump could run so many businesses into bankruptcy.
#3-America faces a diplomatic crisis. America’s actions do not occur in a vacuum and the needless aggression will hurt our relationship with allies and the world. First, there are the direct and obvious frays in diplomatic ties. So far, Trump has threatened invasion or put tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Panama, Colombia, and Denmark. These countries are all rightly upset, as they are some of America’s strongest allies and have not provoked these actions in any way. The crisis is that the next time the U.S. needs these countries help, they will be much less likely to give it. And if they do give it, the cost for that help has increased because of Trump’s foolish actions.
The less direct way we are heading for a diplomatic crisis is the soft power of the U.S. will decline throughout the world. Soft power is essentially the good will the U.S. has around the world that makes it more persuasive and results in other countries being more amenable to U.S. interests. A primary way the U.S. achieves this around the world is through its foreign aid programs. It is only 1% of the U.S. budget, but it has tremendous effects on the perception of the U.S. around the world (not to mention it saves lives). As the U.S. stops funding health programs in sub-Saharan Africa, refugee programs in the Middle East, emergency crisis programs for Ukraine...all these countries will be less likely to work with and support the U.S.
Other countries are watching as well. As the U.S. threatens Panama and Colombia, China is watching with great interest. As the U.S. pulls out humanitarian aid in Africa, China will be ready to step in. The less support for Ukraine, the better it is for Russia. Countries will also trust the U.S. less as it develops a reputation under the Trump administration for burning the countries it works with.
#4-America faces a moral crisis. As discussed above, pulling funding from humanitarian aid and relief will cost lives. It is as simple as that. The U.S. has been blessed with much and has a responsibility to assist others when it can. 1% of the budget is not too much to ask. The callous disregard for those outside of the country will be a moral stain on Trump’s presidency.
The U.S. also has a moral obligation to treat refugees and immigrants (legal or otherwise) inside the country with dignity and respect. The plan to build a 30,000 person detention center in Guantanamo Bay is hardly treating individuals with dignity. Transporting people back to their home country handcuffed in the back of planes is not treating individuals with dignity. And perhaps worst of all, sending tens of thousands of political refugees back to Venezuela, where they will be tortured, imprisoned and worse by an authoritarian regime is not treating individuals with dignity and respect.
But that’s not all for our moral crisis. Pardoning violent criminals who attacked law enforcement officers while they tried to overturn a valid election is immoral. Firing the people who attempted to prosecute those who committed wrongs and then releasing their names so that the violent mob you just pardoned can go after them...seems immoral. Creating an environment where the parents of a dead soldier are afraid to have the name of their daughter released, solely because she is a female pilot and they know will be blamed for a crash because of “DEI”, is immoral. I could go on and on.
These first few weeks have been as bad, or worse, than anyone imagined. Every action has had revenge or personal gain as its motive. Trump likes to brag about his landslide election, his great victory, but as the graph below shows, it was just average. With a 1.5% victory in the popular vote, and not reaching 50%, Trump has set about shredding our constitutional order, the structure of our economy, our relations with other countries and taken us with him down the path of immorality.
The actions of these first few weeks mirror the actions in countries like Turkey, Hungary, and Venezuela as their democracy slipped away. There is real danger for America right now. The four of these crises occurring at the same time, while our politics are broken, our society is divided and distracted, is a dangerous mixture. COVID revealed just how ill-equipped our system and society were for an actual crisis. I fear we are in worse shape now, and the challenge is even greater.